#21 Notre Dame still has a chance at reaching the College Football Playoff. However, it’ll likely take an undefeated end to the regular season for the Fighting Irish. Standing in their way this week is Boise State. The Broncos come to South Bend on a three-game winning streak, hoping to secure another Mountain West conference title.
Below is my prediction and pick for College Football Week 6’s game between the Boise State Broncos and the Notre Dame Fighting Irish.
Notre Dame enters this contest as 20.5-point favorites (-112) over Boise State, with the over/under set at 62.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Boise State vs. Notre Dame prediction, preview
Notre Dame, for all its flaws, has shown signs of life over the last two weeks. That’s thanks to a suddenly dominant offense. Unlike last season’s run-heavy attack, the Irish are capable of beating defenses in several different ways. Freshman quarterback CJ Carr has been a revelation, throwing for 1,091 yards and nine touchdowns. On the ground, first-round talent Jeremiyah Love is arguably the best running back in college football. The junior has gained 490 yards from scrimmage and eight total touchdowns.
The Golden Domers have scored 56 points in each of their last two games. Granted, those contests came against Purdue and Arkansas. Regardless, putting up those kind of numbers against Big Ten and SEC defenses is impressive. At this point, it’s difficult to think of a more dynamic Notre Dame offense in recent memory.
No matter how you slice it, this will be a major challenge for Boise State. The Broncos, despite their 3-1 record, have looked shaky on defense. The two best squads they’ve played this season, Air Force and South Florida, combined for 71 total points in Weeks 1 and 3. The team’s biggest cause for concern is on the ground. BSU has surrendered 168.3 rushing yards per game to opponents. If not for two blowout wins, that number would likely be far worse.
If the Broncos have any chance at keeping this close, they’ll need to find success through the air. Once considered a strength, Notre Dame’s secondary has looked porous so far. Teams have gained _ passing yards per game against the Fighting Irish. All-American cornerback Leonard Moore (ankle) has been held out since Week 3 vs. Texas A&M.
Assuming Moore sits, Boise State will need to take advantage. Quarterback Maddux Madsen has been productive, throwing for 1,129 yards and nine touchdowns. On the ground, two different Broncos running backs, Dylan Riley and Sire Gaines, have recorded at least 245 yards. It remains to be seen how this offense will hold up against elite competition, however. In their season-opener vs. USF, the team only scored seven points.
Boise State vs. Notre Dame pick, best bet
There isn’t much value on Notre Dame as 20.5-point favorites, even at home. However, it’s difficult to determine which version of Boise State will show up this afternoon. One similarity between these two programs is a reliance on the run game. Carr and Madsen are good quarterbacks, but chewing up clock will be a goal for both sides. Keeping that in mind, expect these offenses to keep this from becoming a major shootout.
