The Navy Midshipmen will host the Air Force Falcons for the 58th time in the history of the programs. The Air Force has won 34 of these matchups, although the Navy has won four of the last five. These are not quite your father’s Armed Forces teams either, with each showing some encouraging growth as a program.
Looking at the odds for the matchup, Air Force enters as a 12.5-point favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook and holds -470 odds on the moneyline. Navy holds +360 odds of pulling off the outright upset, and the game total is set at 51.5 points.
This article will take a brief preview of both teams and a pick for the Week 6 matchup.
Air Force at Navy prediction, preview
Navy Preview
The Midshipmen enter with a 4-0 record after having secured victories over VMI, UAB, Tulsa, and Rice. Brian Newberry led the program to a 10-3 record last year in his second season in charge of the program and peaked at 24th in the AP Rankings. They have not cracked the Top 25 yet this year, but the 4-0 start is as good as you can ask for.
Blake Horvath headlines the quarterback production, although this comes with slightly different responsibilities in the Navy system. Horvath has attempted 38 passes this year and completed 26 of them. He has thrown for 500 total yards, three touchdowns, and three interceptions while adding 355 rushing yards and five touchdowns with his legs. The Navy has leaned on its rushing attack as its identity for quite some time, and this year is no different. Alex Tecza headlines the ground attack with 376 yards and five touchdowns this season while also adding 62 receiving yards. Eli Heidenreich leads the team in receiving yards with 12 receptions for 170 yards and is third on the team in rushing with 232 yards. He has three total touchdowns on the year. Braxton Woodson and Brandon Chatman have each pitched in 120+ rushing yards and combined for three touchdowns.
The dependency on the ground game has not stopped the Midshipmen from putting up points. Navy is averaging 38.2 points per game, which ranks 25th among Division 1 teams. They are producing 483.8 total yards of offense per game, with 352.3 of these coming on the ground. Defensively, they are holding opponents to just 16.8 points per game and allowing an average of 297.0 yards of offense. They have tallied as many as 52 points already this year and have not given up more than 24 points this season.
Air Force Preview
The Falcons enter with a 1-3 record on the season, with their lone victory coming against Bucknell in a 49-13 win in the season opener. Since this point, Air Force has dropped three straight games to Utah State, Boise State, and Hawaii. They have dropped to 0-3 in Mountain West play, but they have some opportunities for wins in the coming games if they can improve their level of play.
Liam Szarka stands in at quarterback and has completed 31 of his 46 pass attempts for 638 yards, five touchdowns, and three interceptions. He has also added 296 rushing yards and four touchdowns on the ground, leading Air Force in each category. Dylan Carson is right behind him with 224 rushing yards at the running back spot, while adding a pair of touchdowns. Cade Harris is the team’s leading wide receiver with 16 receptions for 439 yards while adding 176 rushing yards and four total scores. Kade Frew is the lone other member of the Falcons to have rushed for over 100 yards on the season, while Quin Smith is the team’s second leading receiver with nine receptions for 260 yards and three touchdowns, or a Mountain West best 28.9 yards per carry.
The Air Force offense has been strong so far this season, averaging 37.8 points per game, which ranks 27th among D1 teams, and tallying 469.8 total yards of offense. 254.3 of these yards are coming on the ground through the run game. But they have given points back just as easily, with opponents averaging 38.8 points against them, which ranks 131st out of the 136 qualifying DI teams. The Falcons have scored as many as 49 points this season, but given up this same total in two separate games.
Air Force at Navy pick, best bet
When you think of matchups between service academies, you likely are bracing for old-school football without much scoring. Expect the exact opposite in this matchup.
Air Force is coming off a matchup against Hawaii in which they lost 44-35, with more than 1,000+ total yards of offense being produced. The two teams combined for 41 points in the fourth quarter alone, and Air Force allowed Hawaii to convert 14 of its 19 third-down attempts. They have given up 30+ points in three straight games while facing offenses without as much success as Navy has shown this year.
Since 2023, all three service academies have cashed the over in more than 50% of their games. The over is also 7-1 for these two teams so far this season. Air Force has not had a game go under the total yet this year, and in five straight dating back to last year, while Navy has cashed the over in three of its four games. While the 51.5-point line is higher than we are accustomed to seeing, it is because both these teams are scoring at an increased rate.
Expect both these teams to struggle to get stops and for the Air Force offense to be capable of keeping pace with Navy’s production for at least most of the matchup. My lean is toward the Falcons covering the +12.5 points spread, but I am expecting both these teams to put up 30+ points and for the game total to comfortably eclipse the 51.5 point total. The Air Force defense is the weakest unit of the four, and count on Navy to lead the pathway to clearing the 51.5 point total as Air Force adds points to remain within striking distance.
