The NFL season is here, and there are some great games on the Week 5 slate. This is a look at my best bets for NFL Week 5. You can place all of these bets on DraftKings Sportsbook.
NFL Week 5 Best Bets
Panthers +1.5 vs. Dolphins
The Panthers and the Dolphins face off in Charlotte this week, in a battle between two 1-3 teams. Despite both teams struggling through the first month of the season, the Panthers have a better chance of finding something. Bryce Young showed serious signs of improvement towards the end of last season, but has regressed to start this season. Young is holding his team back at the moment because they have been solid in almost every other aspect of the game. Carolina ranks 12th in offensive rushing success rate, 11th in defensive dropback success rate and 11th in defensive rushing success rate. They are an above-average NFL team in every facet of the game, besides throwing the football. However, this is the game that Dave Canales could unlock something in Bryce Young, like he did at the end of last season.
This Dolphins defense ranks 31st in the NFL in defensive EPA/dropback and 32nd in defensive dropback success rate. Every team they have faced this season has been able to throw the ball against them. Despite getting their first win last week, the Dolphins were outplayed by the Jets. New York averaged 7.1 yards per play, compared to 5.4 yards per play for Miami. If Bryce Young is ever going to play well, it will be against this defense. Five of Young’s seven career wins as an NFL starter have come at home, so you also want to back him when he is in Charlotte. The Panthers have the better defense and the home-field advantage, which should be enough to get this win against a Dolphins team that should be 0-5.
Broncos +3.5 at Eagles
This Broncos team is very similarly built to last season’s team. They rank fourth in the NFL in defensive EPA/play and third in defensive success rate. They make it tough on any team, and should slow down an Eagles offense that ranks 15th in the NFL in offensive EPA/play. The Broncos’ offense has actually been more efficient than the Eagles. Denver’s offense ranks 12th in the NFL in EPA/play. This should be a lower-scoring game between two high-end defenses and two lower-tier offenses. The Eagles beat the Cowboys by four points, the Chiefs by three points, the Rams by seven points (thanks to a last-minute blocked field goal), and the Buccaneers by six points. They have played all close games, and it should be another tight one against the Broncos. The Eagles are due for negative regression, and the Broncos should keep this game within a field goal.
Six-Point Teaser: Bills -2.5 & Jets +8.5
The Bills have been the best offense in the NFL so far this season. They rank first in offensive EPA/play by a significant margin and are averaging 33.3 points per game. The Bills are 8.5-point favorites in this game, and Josh Allen is 28-2 SU in his career as a favorite of two possessions or more. It’s tough to cover these games as big favorites against division opponents. However, at home in Buffalo, the Bills should be able to get the win and cover a 2.5-point teased-down spread against the Patriots. New England ranks 23rd in defensive EPA/play and 28th in defensive success rate. The Bills should score with ease and cover this short spread.
The Jets are unlucky to be at 0-4 this season. They gave up a last-second field goal to lose to the Buccaneers, a last-minute field goal to lose to the Steelers and were the better team in their loss to the Dolphins. Other than getting dominated by the Bills, they have been within a score of their other three losses. This game should be another game that the Jets keep close. The Jets rank sixth in defensive success rate this season and should be able to limit the touchdowns against a great Cowboys’ offense. The Jets rank seventh in the NFL in offensive success rate and should grind the ball down the field, playing keep away from Dak Prescott. The Cowboys’ only win this season came in overtime, and this should be another one-score game between two evenly matched teams.
Alvin Kamara Anytime TD (-130)
Alvin Kamara has been unlucky not to find the end zone more than once this season. He gets a lot of touches for New Orleans as Doug Nussmeier tries to make life easy on Spencer Rattler. Over the last three games, he has gotten 16.3 touches per game between the run game and the pass game. This game against the Giants is the perfect opportunity for Kamara to get a touchdown on the board. The Giants rank dead last in the NFL in defensive EPA/rush and defensive rushing success rate. Against the Giants this season, the Commanders had two rushing touchdowns, the Cowboys had two rushing touchdowns, the Chargers had a rushing touchdown, and the Chiefs had a rushing touchdown. The Saints should keep that streak going and get a rushing touchdown of their own through their star running back.
