The Aces are hosting the Mercury on Friday for Game 1 of the WNBA Finals. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Las Vegas is favored by three points and this game carries a total of 160 points.
Below, I break down Game 1 between the Aces and the Mercury and give a pick for this contest.
Aces vs. Mercury preview, prediction
The Aces and Mercury meet in the WNBA Finals after Las Vegas defeated the Fever in five games in the semi-finals and Phoenix defeated the Lynx in four games in the semi-finals. Indiana pushed the Aces to five games despite the Fever missing Caitlin Clark (groin) and that deciding Game 5 went to overtime. Meanwhile, it took the Mercury four games to eliminate the top seeded Lynx, but superstar Napheesa Collier got hurt for Minnesota in Game 3 and missed Game 4, which was a massive loss for the club, as the forward had an incredible season in which she finished second in MVP voting behind only the Aces’ A’ja Wilson.
The Aces and Mercury met four times in the regular season and Las Vegas won this season series 3-1. The Aces blew the Mercury out by 22 points when these teams last faced each other in late August and Phoenix’s lone win against Las Vegas this season notably came with Wilson inactive.
This postseason, the Aces and Mercury have been two very different teams, as Las Vegas relies on its offense and Phoenix relies on its defense. During these playoffs, the Aces rank first in offensive rating, while the Mercury rank first in defensive rating.
Wilson won her fourth MVP award this season and the superstar has continued to be a monster on both sides of the ball for the Aces in the playoffs, leading the WNBA with 26 points and 2.8 blocks per game. Jackie Young has also been outstanding for Las Vegas this postseason and even better than the All-Star was in the regular season. After averaging 16.5 PPG in the regular season, Young is scoring 20.5 PPG this postseason. Wilson and Young are the best one-two punch in the league and while the Mercury’s defense is thriving right now, slowing down Wilson and Young on their home floor Friday will be a difficult task.
Phoenix is led by Alyssa Thomas, who is playing some of the best basketball of her career this postseason. The six-time All-Star is averaging a near triple-double of 18.6 points, 9.1 assists and 8.4 rebounds per game. Satou Sabally and Kaleah Copper have also been terrific, averaging 17.9 and 15.0 PPG, respectively. Despite this Big Three’s excellent numbers, the Mercury rank only fifth in offensive rating during these playoffs, so it may be challenging for Phoenix to keep pace with the Aces’ league-best offense.
Aces vs. Mercury pick, best bet
The Aces were the clear better team over the Mercury when these clubs faced each other in the regular season and Las Vegas being at home for Game 1 is a big advantage, as the Aces are 21-6 on their home floor this season. Meanwhile, Phoenix is 14-11 on the road.
Las Vegas should notch its fourth win of the season over the Mercury in Game 1 and the Aces are a strong bet to cover this three-point spread.
