The first-ever expanded seven-game WNBA Finals are finally here. Both of the defending finalists — the New York Liberty and the Minnesota Lynx — are out. Instead, it’ll be a Mojave Desert clash between the Las Vegas Aces and the Phoenix Mercury (never mind that Phoenix lies slightly south of the Mojave’s southern reaches and instead sits in the Sonoran Desert).
Phoenix, which went 19-21 in 2024, wouldn’t have been here if not for stellar offseason acquisition Alyssa Thomas, who traded the orange and white of the Connecticut Sun for the orange and white of the Mercury and averaged 15.4 points, 8.8 rebounds, and 9.2 assists per game to finish third in MVP voting. She’ll have a chance to take a step towards her first title when Game 1 of the WNBA Finals tips off tonight at 8 p.m. ET.
Phoenix is a 3.5-point underdog at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the point total set for 160.5. Below, I’ve detailed my favorite prop bet centered around AT.
Best Alyssa Thomas Prop Bet on DraftKings Sportsbook
Alyssa Thomas 10+ Assists (+100)
Earlier this season, Thomas set a WNBA record with three consecutive triple-doubles, and she’s had a fantastic playoff run, dishing out double-digit dimes in three of her last five games. All in all, the 83 extra points she contributed to throughout the semifinals against the Lynx proved critical in the team’s narrow victories. In two of the Mercury’s three wins against Minnesota, the difference between the points created from Thomas’ assists and those of the game’s second-leading assister proved all the difference in the final margin of victory. She’s so dangerous on the drive that the defensive attention opens up both floaters for her and open triples for her teammates.
To be fair, Las Vegas has been great at stopping ball movement this postseason, allowing the fewest assists and forcing the most turnovers per game among any of the eight playoff participants. However, in a much larger sample size during the regular season, the Aces allowed the fifth-most assists per game, ahead of only four teams that missed the playoffs. They did improve somewhat during their 16-game season-ending winning streak, form that they’ve carried over to the playoffs, but it just depends on whether Phoenix’s shooters can hit their shots, given that Las Vegas has allowed the second-highest three point percentage in the league so far these playoffs. Kathryn Westbeld has hit 53.3% of her triples these playoffs.
