Bullpens win games in October — and if you needed any more convincing, look no further than this series. The Chicago Cubs secured a Game 1 victory over the San Diego Padres on the back of 4.2 scoreless innings from their arm barn, while the Padres’ pen pumped 5.1 shutout frames in Game 2 to even up the series and avoid elimination.
It all comes down to nine innings in Chicago, a winner-take-all matchup to decide who plays the Milwaukee Brewers in the National League Division Series.
First pitch at Wrigley Field is scheduled for 3:08 p.m. ET on Wednesday afternoon. The odds are practically even on DraftKings Sportsbook, with the Cubs listed at -116 and the Padres at -105 on the moneyline. The total is set at 7.5 runs.
Padres at Cubs, preview
Considering how bullpen-dependent the first two contests have been, both clubs will need more length out of their starting pitchers.
Jameson Taillon gets the ball for the Cubs, facing San Diego for the first time this season. The 33-year-old righty held a 3.68 ERA and 1.06 WHIP with 98 strikeouts across 23 starts in 2025. He spent time on the IL down the stretch, but returned strong, boasting a 1.54 ERA in his final four starts.
He might not be in the Cy Young conversation, but he owns an elite 5.2% walk-rate, an average exit velocity of just 88.3 mph, and some of the best offspeed stuff in the game. Taillon’s offspeed run value (4) ranks in the top 86th percentile league-wide. Still, he’s struggled to get strikeouts, induce whiffs, and keep the ball on the ground — all troubling signs in October, where one big swing can change everything.
Opposite of him is San Diego’s Yu Darvish, who will also be facing his opponent for the first time this year. Hampered by an elbow injury, the 39-year-old right-hander posted a career-worst 5.38 ERA across 72 innings, along with a 1.18 WHIP and 68 strikeouts. However, his underlying metrics tell a completely different story. Darvish has excelled at limiting hard contact — posting a 33.0% hard-hit rate with an average exit velocity of 87.3 mph — and owns an xERA of just 3.64.
Padres at Cubs pick, best bet
Both lineups are loaded with talent and capable of punishing mistakes — but through the first two games of the series, neither team has flashed its star power.
For Chicago, Kyle Tucker has managed just one hit, while Pete Crow-Armstrong and Ian Happ are hitless with five strikeouts apiece. Manny Machado delivered San Diego’s lone home run on Wednesday, but Fernando Tatis Jr. has been held to a single. In terms of OPS, Chicago and San Diego rank sixth and seventh, respectively, among the eight playoff teams thus far.
Considering how dominant pitchers are in October, this trend could likely continue into the last game of the wild card. Still, as both teams dig deeper into their rotations, the chances of mistake pitches — and big swings — tick up ever so slightly.
However, the Padres have a safety net in the form of their automatic bullpen. The San Diego arm barn led MLB with a 3.06 ERA, an immaculate mark that’s a whopping 0.35 points lower than the next closest team. Their pen is headlined by their trade deadline acquisition, flamethrower Mason Miller, who posted a phenomenal 0.77 ERA in 23.1 innings after the deadline and struck out all five batters he faced on Wednesday.
While the Cubs’ bullpen is imposing in its own right, it simply doesn’t measure up to the best one in baseball.
