These are my picks to win every Week 5 NFL game straight up, tiered by confidence level and ranked within each tier. You can bet on any of these games at DraftKings Sportsbook.
NFL Week 5 Confidence Picks
High Confidence
Bills over Patriots
The Bills are steamrolling their way through the start of this NFL season. In Week 1, they had that incredible comeback to take down the Ravens. The Bills have been able to ride that momentum to a 4-0 start to their season. Meanwhile, the Ravens, who were expected to be the Bills’ primary competition, sit at 1-3. Things could not be going better for Buffalo, and they already have wins over the Dolphins and the Jets. This is their chance to move to 3-0 in the division, and they should have no problem doing so. The Patriots looked great in their win over the Panthers, but their roster is still nowhere near Buffalo’s.
Lions over Bengals
The Lions have been one of the best teams in the NFL so far this season. They rank in the top six in the NFL in both offensive and defensive EPA/play, the only team to do so. Some suspected there could be a drop-off from Detroit after so many years of success with Ben Johnson and Aaron Glenn. However, they look like the dominant Lions of the last several years and should get another win in Week 5. The Bengals have been thrashed in both games without Joe Burrow so far. They look completely incompetent, and this could be a lost season for Cincinnati.
Cardinals over Titans
The Cardinals have been meeting expectations so far this season. They have been favorites in two games, against the Panthers and the Saints, and they won both of those games. They were underdogs against the 49ers and the Seahawks and lost both of those games. Arizona should keep following that trend and win this game as big favorites against the Titans. Tennessee is still winless on the season, and they have been unable to get anything going offensively. Tennessee ranks dead last in offensive EPA/play, and Kyler Murray should do enough to ensure a win for Arizona.
Colts over Raiders
The Colts are taking on the Raiders in Week 5. Indianapolis has been the surprise team of this season, starting off with a 3-1 record. They suffered their first loss last week against the Rams in a tough road spot, where they played well. The Colts should bounce back strong against a struggling Las Vegas team. The Raiders lost at home last week against the Bears to drop to 1-3. This offense has not been able to get clicking with Geno Smith at the helm like many Raiders fans hoped it would. With the home-field advantage, this should be a comfortable Colts win.
Rams over 49ers
The Rams picked up a huge win over the Colts in Week 4. The Rams were victims of a heartbreaking loss in Week 3 against the Eagles and responded well to beat the undefeated Colts. Up next is a massive divisional game against the 49ers. The two are tied, along with the Seahawks, at 3-1 atop the NFC West. In what looks like it will be a tight divisional race, this is a huge game for both teams. The Rams get this game at home on Thursday night and should find a way to win. They have looked sharper between the two teams so far this season, and the 49ers are still dealing with injuries all over the roster.
Medium Confidence
Ravens over Texans
The Ravens are in desperation mode already in Week 5. They have started the season 1-3, losing to the Bills, Chiefs and Lions. It seems like a lifetime ago that they led 34-19 in Buffalo on Sunday Night Football in Week 1. People were already crowning them as Super Bowl champions heading into that fourth quarter. Of course, the Bills came storming back, and the Ravens’ lone win this season came against the Browns. There is concern over Lamar Jackson’s hamstring injury that he suffered against the Chiefs. However, the Ravens should win this game with or without him. They should lean on their defense and run game to beat a Texans team that has struggled to get points on the board this season.
Eagles over Broncos
The Eagles just keep winning, starting the season 4-0 as they look to defend their crown. The Broncos have been up and down this season, losing to the Colts and Chargers but winning against the Titans and Bengals. The Denver defense struggled against the Colts and Chargers but looked dominant against the Bengals and Titans. That clearly reflects that they can handle lesser competition but not high-end offenses. Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley should be able to create enough plays to outscore Bo Nix. This is a tough spot for the Broncos on short rest heading across the country against the defending champions.
Chiefs over Jaguars
The Chiefs continue to be a winning machine. Despite making another Super Bowl last year, many wrote them off after they lost in Week 1 against the Chargers and then lost the Super Bowl rematch against the Eagles. However, they have won back-to-back games to improve to 2-2, including beating the Ravens in a massive game. The Chiefs rank seventh in the NFL in offensive EPA/play, and Patrick Mahomes is playing at an MVP level. They should be able to outscore the Jaguars in this game and get above .500 for the first time this season.
Vikings over Browns
The Vikings have had two very different performances with Carson Wentz at quarterback. They looked amazing in his first start against the Bengals but struggled in Dublin against the Steelers, despite a late comeback attempt. There is growing speculation that Dillon Gabriel could get the start in this game for the Browns. That would be an unwise decision by Kevin Stefanski. The last coach I would want my rookie quarterback to make his debut against is Brian Flores. If Gabriel starts this game, it could be a comfortable win for Minnesota. If it’s Flacco again, the Vikings should still get the win. They have a big advantage of spending their second straight week across the pond.
Chargers over Commanders
The Chargers need a bounce-back win. After a great start to their season, they lost to the Giants in Week 4 against a rookie quarterback making his first start. Los Angeles is still elite on defense, ranking third in defensive EPA/play. The Chargers should be able to control this game, whether Jayden Daniels starts or not for Washington. As long as Justin Herbert can avoid making any mistakes, the Chargers are the better team and should get the win at home.
Coin-Flip Games
Seahawks over Buccaneers
The Seahawks have had a strong start to the Sam Darnold era. Darnold struggled in his first start for the team against the 49ers in Week 1. However, they have won three straight games, including a big divisional game against the Cardinals last week. The Seahawks got that win on Thursday night, meaning they have extended rest for this game. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers just had to face the Eagles in Week 4 before traveling across the country to Seattle for this game. The Buccaneers might be the better team, but the Seahawks have a big advantage when it comes to rest and travel.
Panthers over Dolphins
The Panthers have been a hard team to predict. After starting off 0-2, they decimated the Falcons in Week 3. Then, in Week 4, they had the tables turned on them by getting dominated by the Patriots. They face another AFC East opponent next, the Dolphins. Miami just got its first win of the season against the Jets and should be feeling some confidence. These teams are both not excellent, but the Panthers might be the worst team in the NFL.
Cowboys over Jets
The Jets are one of the last winless teams in the NFL. They have played decent football at times but don’t yet know how to win as a team. The Cowboys have also struggled at times this season, but their offense is incredible. They rank fourth in the NFL in offensive EPA/play and put up 40 points against the Cowboys in last week’s tie. Dak Prescott should find a way to win this game, or, more likely, the Jets will find a way to lose.
Saints over Giants
The Saints are also among the last winless teams in the league. Spencer Rattler has never won a game as an NFL starter, despite playing some decent football this season. This could be the big chance for Rattler to get his first win. Jaxson Dart played well in his first start, getting an impressive home win against the Chargers. However, the first road start is always a tougher test for rookie quarterbacks. Dart will also need to head to New Orleans without his superstar wide receiver Malik Nabers, who is out for the season. The Saints have put up good fights against good teams this season, and this could be the perfect opportunity to get their first win.
