In just universe, tonight’s Thursday Night Football clash between the 3-1 San Francisco 49ers and the 3-1 Los Angeles Rams would be an intriguing battle for the division lead. Instead, San Francisco’s quarterback, top two wide receivers, and top tight end are all injured, leaving Kendrick Bourne as Mac Jones’ go-to target.
To be fair, it was at this point last season that Jauan Jennings broke out, recording 11 catches for 175 yards and three touchdowns in a 27-24 loss to the Rams in Los Angeles on September 22, 2024 with Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle, and Deebo Samuel all injured. Perhaps Bourne can make a statement tonight.
The 49ers are 8.5-point underdogs at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the point total set to 44.5. Below, I’ve detailed my favorite prop bets centered around San Francisco’s new miscast number one.
Best Kendrick Bourne Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
Kendrick Bourne 40+ Receiving Yards (-113)
The 49ers’ offense shouldn’t drop off too much going from Purdy to Jones. In two starts this season, Purdy has completed 65.8% of his passes for 586 yards, four touchdowns, and four interceptions, good for an 85.8 passer rating and a 78.8 QBR. There’s not much of a drop-off to Jones, who’s completed 66.3% of his passes for 563 yards, four touchdowns, and one Interception, good for a 98.1 passer rating and a 66.9 QBR. Purdy is a more complete, more efficient player who’s also much more of a threat with his legs, but Jones is capable.
Bourne hasn’t hit the 40-yard mark in any game, but he’s recorded at least 30 twice, and San Francisco’s leading wide receiver has reached that number in each game. Plus, Jones leans more heavily on his number one target than Purdy does; in Week 1 and Week 4, only 12 of Purdy’s 50 non-McCaffrey targets went to Ricky Pearsall, his top wide receiver, while 21 of Jones’ 58 went to Jennings (in Week 2) or Pearsall (in Week 3). Jones clearly has no chemistry with Marquez Valdes-Scantling, targeting him just once in each game, so Bourne has an outside shot at 10 targets tonight like Jennings and Pearsall did in Weeks 2 and 3.
The Rams won’t make it easy for Bourne, given their elite secondary. This season, they’ve allowed the ninth-fewest receiving yards, as well as the 11th-worst efficiency. They’ve also gotten pressure at the second-highest rate while missing the fewest tackles. Still, Los Angeles might actually be better suited to shut down McCaffrey, given that it has allowed the second-fewest receiving yards to running backs, as well as the ninth-fewest rushing yards. The Rams are also the only team in the NFL not to allow a touchdown to a running back, and they’ve faced some pretty good ones (Saquon Barkley and Jonathan Taylor).
Kendrick Bourne Anytime TD Scorer (+285)
It’s very possible that Los Angeles allows its first touchdown of the season to a running back tonight and that McCaffrey (-120) ultimately finds the end zone. But even without Purdy, Kittle, Jennings, and Pearsall out, it’s possible that Kyle Shanahan’s offense gets on the board twice, something that it has done every game this season. Bourne hasn’t yet found the end zone or even been targeted in the red zone, but Pearsall and Jennings have combined to receive 35% of the team’s red zone targets, all of which could go to Bourne. The Rams might sell out to stop McCaffrey and allow Bourne to sneak open.
It’s not like he’s never been a touchdown scoring threat. He’s scored four or more touchdowns in four of his eight full seasons in the NFL, including the 2018 and 2019 seasons with the 49ers, the latter on a roster that also included Samuel and Emmanuel Sanders. The quarterbacks in those seasons, Nick Mullens and Jimmy Garoppolo, aren’t that much better than Jones is. Los Angeles, despite its overall strength in coverage, could provide an opportunity: the four touchdowns that the Rams have allowed to wide receivers this season are tied for the 11th-most in football.
