Week 5 of the NFL season will kick off with a Thursday night matchup between the San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Rams. These two NFC West opponents each enter with a 3-1 record on the season, with all four teams in the division holding a record of 2-2 or better.
San Francisco has picked up victories over the Seahawks, Saints and Cardinals, but it is looking to bounce back from a loss to the Jaguars last week. Los Angeles has defeated the Texans, Titans and Colts, with its lone loss coming to the Philadelphia Eagles. Injuries could be a factor in this game, and it is worth monitoring the injury report leading up to kickoff. Brock Purdy has already been ruled out along with wide receivers Jauan Jennings, Ricky Pearsall, and Jordan Watkins.
Looking at the odds, the Rams are favored by 7.5 points and hold -375 odds on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The 49ers hold +295 odds of getting the outright victory, with the game total set at 45.5 points.
There are plenty of ways to get involved in the action beyond just backing a side. This article will look at my three favorite prop bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for the Week 5 opener between these divisional foes.
49ers at Rams Best Prop Bets
Kyren Williams Anytime Touchdown (-185)
The -185 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook are a bit intimidating, but it is priced this way for good reason. If the odds are too steep to stomach individually, keep this in mind as a foundation for any SGP parlays. Kyren Williams has just two touchdowns so far this year after notching 31 across the past two seasons. He has carried the ball 68 times for 303 yards on the ground while adding 53 receiving yards.
San Francisco has a strong overall defense that ranks seventh in points allowed and fifth in total yards given up. It has allowed just two rushing touchdowns so far this season, which came to Travis Etienne Jr. last week and Zach Charbonnet in the season opener. Williams has received 16+ touches and 69+ yards of offense in every game and tallied 80+ yards in each of his past three. This divisional matchup is one where Williams has had success in the past. Across the three games he has faced the 49ers, Williams has tallied 249 rushing yards, 79 receiving yards and five total touchdowns.
The Rams’ passing attack has been clicking on all cylinders with Matthew Stafford second in the league in total passing yards, trailing Dak Prescott by only five yards. This will be the clear priority for what San Francisco will attempt to shut down and will help open the door for Williams to produce. The Notre Dame product is fighting off Blake Corum for carries to an extent, but Williams still ranks 11th in the league in total touches. He has been a touchdown magnet over the past two seasons, with only Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen, Derrick Henry and Jahmyr Gibbs finding the end zone more frequently across this stretch. He has had some tough breaks due to game script and penalties, but expect the Rams to get back to relying on Williams as one of their biggest sources of scoring and see plenty of action throughout. Expect him to add his third touchdown of the season and the sixth of his career against the 49ers.
Christian McCaffrey Over 59.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Speaking of high-volume touches, Christian McCaffrey leads the entire NFL with 100 touches through the first four weeks of the season. Some injury concerns popped up shortly before the season, leading to flashbacks of last year’s injury-riddled year. But McCaffrey has looked like himself and put on display a reassuring level of explosiveness beyond what the raw numbers indicate. He has taken 69 carries for 225 yards on the ground while adding 31 receptions for 305 yards through the air with two touchdowns notched so far this year.
The quarterback position has been in flux to start the season, with Brock Purdy having missed two games due to injury already. Mac Jones filled in for two games, of which the 49ers won both, and led to some changes in the offense. This will be the case this week once again. McCaffrey’s usage in the screen game and in short passing situations has been called on at a more regular rate in the early parts of the year. While the former Offensive Player of the Year has always been a capable pass catcher out of the backfield, his current rank of having the third-most receptions in the NFL feels a bit extreme. Looking at just his rushing total, McCaffrey has run for 69, 55, 52 and 49 rushing yards while seeing at least 13 carries in every game.
Los Angeles has allowed 85+ yards on the ground in every game this year and 100+ in two matchups. This includes Jonathan Taylor running for 76 yards last week, Tony Pollard rushing for 92 in his matchup with the Rams, and even Nick Chubb recording 60 yards against them in the season opener. McCaffrey has been a shoestring tackle away from his first real breakout run a few times this year, with his longest rush being just 15 yards on the season. He will continue to be the foundation of San Francisco’s offense regardless of who is under center, and the impressive stat lines are coming. Look for this to be a step in the right direction and for McCaffrey to record over 59.5 rushing yards for the second time this season. The volume of chances and caliber of talent he holds is too convincing not to believe some bigger stat lines are coming soon. Count on the rivalry and primetime matchup helping bring it out of him.
Puka Nacua to Record 100+ Receiving Yards (+100)
Wherever you had Puka Nacua in your preseason wide receiver rankings, it was probably too low. Through the opening four weeks, Nacua leads the NFL in targets, receptions and receiving yards. The BYU product has pulled in 42 of his 50 receptions for 503 yards and a touchdown this year. Jake Ferguson is second in the league in receptions with 34, while Jaxon Smith-Njigba is second in receiving yards, 101 behind Nacua.
Nacua has pulled in 100+ yards in three of the four games this year, with 91 being his low mark on the season. He has been targeted at least nine times in every game and pulled in double-digit catches in three of the four matchups. Perhaps even more noteworthy, Davante Adams is second on the team with 17 receptions, while no other member of the roster has more than eight. Nacua is a caliber of talent worthy of praise for being capable of producing these illustrious stat lines, but the consistent need for him in the offense is the more convincing reason to continue backing him. Cooper Kupp is not returning to this offense, and it is crystal clear that Matthew Stafford is willing to count on Nacua at a higher rate than any wide receiver in football.
Expect this to continue against the 49ers. While their raw defensive stats are impressive, ranking seventh in points allowed, fifth in yards given up and sixth in passing yards conceded, much of this has been due to their matchups to this point. San Francisco has faced Sam Darnold, Spencer Rattler, Kyler Murray and Trevor Lawrence at the quarterback position thus far. Los Angeles will be the most impressive passing attack it has been tasked with stopping yet. Expect the Rams to continue leaning on Nacua as the foundation of their offense and for him to keep making his case for being the best wide receiver in the NFL. His standard receiving yard prop is 96.5 with the over at -110 odds, but I am taking the round number and backing the +100 odds of Nacua reaching the century line for the fourth time already this season.
