Home runs. Long balls. Bleacher reachers. Whatever you want to call them, people love watching and betting on home run props during baseball games. So much so, we’ve got a whole article dedicated to just that.
We’ve got three elimination games on the diamond today. In that vein, here are my top three home run prop picks on DraftKings Sportsbook: Kerry Carpenter, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Aaron Judge.
Top Home Run Props on DraftKings Sportsbook
Kerry Carpenter 1+ Home Run (+472)
There is going to be so many moving parts in this Game 3. Neither of these managers are afraid to utilize their bullpen or a platoon bat under normal circumstances, so I can only imagine how active they’ll be in an elimination setting. That said, there’s a decent chance that Kerry Carpenter sees Slade Cecconi twice before one (or both) are on the bench. Cecconi has struggled to keep the ball in the park over the past two seasons. In fact, among the 114 pitchers with at least 200 innings thrown since the beginning of 2024, Cecconi’s surrendering the third-most opponent long balls per nine (1.72). Specific to 2025, the right-handed is conceding 1.72 home runs per nine to opposings LHBs. He’s also pitching to a first percentile opponent hard hit rate (49.1%) and a third percentile opponent barrel rate (12.2%). Carpenter is known for his ability to punish RHPs. If Cecconi makes a mistake to him, it might cost the Guardians their season and make you some money. Riley Greene (+439) is another name to keep in mind, though as we learned yesterday, he’s not immune to getting pinch-hit for.
Fernando Tatis Jr. 1+ Home Run (+386)
If you’re picking a home run prop in Game 3 at Wrigley, I think you have to go with a Padres bat. It’s not that I don’t think Yu Darvish is capable of giving up a bomb, but with how quickly Dylan Cease exited yesterday’s contest, Darvish might not even get through the first inning before Mike Shildt calls on his exceptional bullpen. So, instead, let’s exploit the home run issues of Jameson Taillon. The veteran RHP surrendered 24 homers in just 23 starts in 2025, with opposing RHBs doing a majority of the damage. In fact, Taillon conceded a whopping 2.02 long balls per nine in right-on-right matchups during the regular season. Woof. One of those, all the way back in early April, was to Fernando Tatis Jr. at Petco Park. Tatis has never really rediscovered the raw power he showcased in 2021, but he has gone deep in three of his last six contests, including the postseason. He’s also in possession of a 95th percentile average exit velocity (93.3). Don’t get it twisted. He’s still got plenty of pop.
Aaron Judge 1+ Home Run (+242)
As a simple rule of thumb, if Aaron Judge’s home run prop starts to creep up around +250, you attack it — especially if he’s set to face a rookie southpaw in a “do or die” playoff game. Connelly Early is expected to start this contest for the Red Sox, and though he likely won’t be in the game for too long, Boston has no shortage of left-handed long men in its bullpen. All this to say: Judge will likely be taking a majority of his at-bats in an opposite-hand matchup on Thursday evening. That’s great news if you’re cheering for a Judge home run. Among all qualified players, Judge led baseball during the regular season with an .840 expected slugging percentage off LHPs. For context, that rate is 200 points clear of any other hitter with at least 100 at-bats within the split. Judge isn’t just MLB’s most dangerous bat against lefties — he’s in his own stratosphere.
