Just one game stands between the Cubs and Padres in their quest to advance. That means both teams will be desperate to earn a win during Thursday’s do-or-die Game 3.
The first two contests in this series have been low-scoring. Chicago took Game 1, 3-0, and San Diego responded on Wednesday with a 3-1 victory. Will there be more offense today, or will runs continue to be at a premium?
No matter what happens, expect both teams to lean heavily on their best players. Which Cubs or Padres stars will step up? Are any lesser-known names due for their October moment?
Chicago opens as favorites (-115) over San Diego on DraftKings Sportsbook. The over/under is set at 7.5 runs. Here are my top player props for Game 3 between the Padres and the Cubs.
Best Padres vs. Cubs player props
Jameson Taillon 3+ strikeouts (-113)
Unlike San Diego, the Cubs have a good (not elite) bullpen. Manager Craig Counsell will likely have a bit longer leash for his starter than his counterpart, Mike Shildt. It’ll be Jameson Taillon toeing the slab tonight in Chicago. Through 129.2 innings of work this season, the veteran has recorded a 3.68 ERA and 1.06 WHIP.
The one flaw in the righty’s skillset? An inability to induce punch outs. Taillon’s 6.8 K/9 ratio leaves much to be desired. In addition, the Padres don’t whiff very often on offense. Still, this is simply too low of a number to ignore. Taillon has had eight different starts of five innings or less. In five of those instances, he managed to rack up at least three strikeouts. When the 33-year-old last faced the Friars, on April 14th, he recorded four K’s in just 5.1 innings. Even if he’s pulled after four frames, Chicago’s hurler should find a way to hit this over.
Jackson Merrill 2+ total bases (+125)
If you’re going to take down a crafty righty, you need solid left-handed hitters. San Diego’s most lethal southpaw is Jackson Merrill. The former All-Star battled injuries and inconsistent performance throughout most of 2025. Still, the outfielder managed to end the season on a high note. Over his last 20 games, Merrill slashed .309/.349/.704 with seven home runs and 16 RBIs.
Offense has been tough to come by for both sides in this series. However, Merrill has managed to stay productive with a hit, a run and an RBI in two playoff games. A matchup with Taillon looks enticing on paper. Lefties have notched a .492 slugging percentage against the veteran. That number is a clear step up compared to a mark of .361 for right-handers.
A disappointing regular season is fresh on the minds of most bettors. Regardless, this is the postseason; throw all the stats out the window. Merrill remains one of the most talented young hitters in baseball. A scorching-hot month of September only reinforces that. Expect this budding superstar to make his mark at the plate on Thursday.
