In-state rivals are set to clash in Tallahassee. #3 Miami enters Saturday as a national title contender. The Hurricanes combine a dynamic offense with a relentless, hard-hitting defense. To top it off, quarterback Carson Beck is a dark horse Heisman candidate.
The U will face its toughest test of the season in Week 6. A road game vs. Florida State is never easy. That’s especially true against a Seminoles team looking to bounce back following last Friday’s loss to Virginia. Which of these two ACC rivals will earn a win?
Below is my prediction and pick for College Football Week 6’s game between the Miami Hurricanes and the Florida State Seminoles.
Miami enters this contest as 4.5-point favorites (-112) over Florida State, with the over/under set at 53.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Miami vs. Florida State prediction, preview
It all starts with Carson Beck. The former Georgia Bulldog has been terrific during his first season at Coral Gables. Through four games, the senior has thrown for 972 passing yards and seven touchdowns to three interceptions. Those aren’t eye-popping numbers, but Beck hasn’t needed to be a hero. On the ground, running backs Mark Fletcher Jr. and CharMar Brown have combined for 714 yards from scrimmage and ten touchdowns.
Any Power 4 offense averaging nearly 37.0 points per game is a problem. That’s especially true for a Miami squad that has multiple ways to score. In fairness to Florida State, this group is no pushover. The ‘Noles have been especially dominant against the running game, allowing 3.2 yards per rush. That’s the 26th-best mark in all of college football. Through the air, FSU has surrendered 6.1 passing yards per attempt, tied for the nation’s 22nd-best mark
It’s not as if Florida State hasn’t been in a similar situation before. The team put together a dominant 31-17 win in Week 1 against Alabama. However, last Friday’s 46-38 loss to Virginia has hurt their chances at reaching the College Football Playoffs. The Hokies forced Seminoles quarterback Tommy Castellanos to throw three interceptions. A similar game plan will likely be utilized by Miami defensive coordinator Corey Hetherman. The ‘Canes have already recorded six turnovers.
Up front, future first-round pick Reuben Bain Jr. will hope to make an impact. The defensive lineman has notched 2.0 sacks, 3.5 tackles for loss, and an interception. As a unit, the Hurricanes are allowing only 11.5 points per game. Their ‘worst’ showing, Week 1’s 27-24 win over Notre Dame, has aged quite well. The Irish have proven to be an offensive juggernaut, stifled only by Miami this season.
Granted, stopping Florida State is easier said than done. Castellanos has thrown for 848 yards and four touchdowns. His 12.1 yards per attempt currently leads all of FBS. In addition, the senior has scrambled for 217 yards and four more scores. Those numbers combined makes him one of college football’s premier dual-threat quarterbacks. Four other Seminoles players have gained at least 168 rushing yards.
Miami vs. Florida State pick, best bet
In years past, this would be the exact kind of game Miami would blow. Sky-high expectations on the road against a competent rival? It’s a dangerous proposition. Still, it’s also fair to say we still don’t truly know how good this Florida State team is. The Seminoles have one impressive win vs. Alabama and one disappointing loss to Virginia. There’s real reason for optimism, but it’s not enough to call FSU a contender. In this primetime clash, expect the Hurricanes to deliver a signature win.
