A few things are evident about the AFC East four weeks into the NFL season: the Buffalo Bills continue to run the division, the New York Jets are awful, and the Miami Dolphins are also uncompetitive and just lost Tyreek Hill for the season. The AFC East team that is the most difficult to evaluate is the New England Patriots, who are 2-2 with a blowout win over the Carolina Panthers and a pair of one-score defeats against the Las Vegas Raiders and the Pittsburgh Steelers.
On the bright side, Drake Maye looks like a star: he leads the league with a 74.0% completion percentage, and he’s accounted for 988 yards, seven touchdowns, and just two interceptions. He still takes too many sacks, but for the 23-year-old to rank fifth in the NFL in passer rating in his second season was a leap that not even the most optimistic Patriots fans could’ve seen coming.
But one of the reasons for that aerial attack is a mediocre backfield that ranks eighth-to-last in rushing yards and 10th-to-last in yards per carry. Mike Vrabel doesn’t seem to have figured out which running back he prefers: Rhamondre Stevenson has taken his 31 carries for 125 yards, while rookie TreVeyon Henderson has turned his 26 attempts into 97 yards and a score. Maye has contributed to the rushing attack with 24 carries, 98 yards, and two touchdowns, while third-stringer Antonio Gibson has a 19-85-1 line.
While I don’t consider any of the players in New England’s backfield a major fantasy asset, I lean slightly towards Henderson in the long run. While Stevenson has taken the most carries so far overall, Henderson earned the bulk of the work down the stretch in Week 3 after Stevenson lost two fumbles in the first three quarters and they split the rushes relatively evenly in the first two quarters of Week 4 before the score got out of hand. They are both assets in the passing game, with Stevenson catching 11 of his 12 targets for 142 yards and Henderson hauling in all 13 of his for 87 yards.
The difference between them is minuscule: Stevenson ranks dead last in rushing grades among 49 qualified running backs, while Henderson ranks seventh-to-last. Momentum leans towards the rookie: Stevenson peaked in his second season and has gone progressively downhill since, while Henderson got better throughout his college career at Ohio State and has generally improved on a game-to-game basis in the NFL.
The fact that Henderson ranks third-to-last in rush yards over expectation per attempt and still has a higher success rate than Stevenson demonstrates his potential and his consistency. He also hasn’t fumbled since his freshman year with the Buckeyes, while Stevenson had the most fumbles of any running back in 2024. Henderson has also scored once in two carries inside the 10, while Stevenson hasn’t yet found paydirt despite earning twice as many attempts. Eventually, the Patriots are going to go all in on the young core and back their second round pick full-time.
