It took until the second day of the postseason, but now we can officially say “Welcome to October baseball!” The second game of each of the four Wild Card series is set up throughout the day this Wednesday, starting with Guardians-Tigers and wrapping up with Reds-Dodgers just like Tuesday. One way to make the postseason games even more fun is by finding some juicy home run props to attack on DraftKings Sportsbook. After taking a look at the matchups, game environments, odds and current form of the players available, my favorite home run props for Wednesday are from Fernando Tatis Jr., Cody Bellinger, and Max Muncy.
Just like during the regular season, here’s a quick reminder before we step to the plate and point to the flagpole to call our shot — all home run props are long-shot bets. Even the top home run hitters are more likely not to hit a home run in any single game, especially against playoff-level pitching. Home run props are never “safe” picks, but a few key indicators can point us in the right direction. Just remember that home run props are always volatile plays.
As a result, home run props can be a fun part of your betting strategy, but they shouldn’t be heavily relied on since they’re uncertain. What makes home run props exciting is that the longer odds yield big returns when they do hit. I typically play home run props individually and in round robins at a small unit size, boosting the ceiling even higher if multiple home run props go green on a given night.
Breaking down the numbers and matchups, here is why I like these three home run props on Wednesday’s slate.
Best Home Run Props on DraftKings Sportsbook
Fernando Tatis Jr. to record 1+ home runs (+480)
Tatis and the Padres couldn’t get anything going in Game 1, losing 3-1 to the Cubs. They’ll face elimination on Wednesday against opener Andrew Kittredge and long reliever Shota Imanaga.
Tatis is one of my top MLB DFS plays of the day, and I also like his home run props as he takes on Imanaga and the Cubs.
He finished the season with 25 homers on the year and played in 155 of his teams 162 games. He hit seven of those long balls in his last 20 games of the regular season with a .392 wOBA.
He had an 11.7% barrel rate in those 20 games, which was a slight improvement on his 10.9% barrel rate on the season, and his launch angle shifted from 9.4 degrees to 17.2 degrees. That improved launch angle resulted in smashes like this:
Tatis was not exactly a lefty-killer, but he is still in a good matchup against lefty Shota Imanaga. Imanaga gave up 31 homers in his 25 games, and righties hit 27 of those 31 homers against him this season. At Wrigley, righties hit 14 home runs against him.
The conditions aren’t expected to be especially favorable for home runs, but Tatis brings good value to his home run props as a result, he has six homers in his 14 postseason games, and I expect him to bounce back in a big way from an 0-for-4 in Game 1.
Cody Bellinger to record 1+ home runs (+538)
Bellinger and the Yankees are also facing elimination on Wednesday night as they take on Brayan Bello and the Red Sox. Bellinger went 1-for-4 with a strikeout in Game 1, when Anthony Volpe’s solo shot was the only run the Yankees could scratch out against lefty Garrett Crochet.
Bellinger should have a much better matchup against Bello, who he is 4-for-10 against with a pair of home runs in the past. He’s no stranger to going yard in the postseason with nine home runs in his 70 postseason games, mostly with the Dodgers.
In his first year in New York, Bellinger blasted 29 bombs and hit .272 with a .347 wOBA.
He only hit one homer in his last 18 games, but 18 of his 29 homers have come at home, where he had a .302 average and .384 wOBA on the season. Similarly, 21 of 29 homers have come against righties like Bello, so he’s on the strong side of all his splits Wednesday.
Bello has been good for Boston, but he has allowed at least three runs in five straight starts, including a loss to the Yankees at Fenway in mid-September. Facing him at homer-friendly Yankee Stadium should be a good matchup for Bellinger, and since he hasn’t hit many home runs lately, his home run props are at a very affordable level.
Max Muncy to record 1+ home runs (+307)
In the nightcap, I’m sticking with Muncy for a second straight day in a great spot. Muncy went 0-for-4 with a walk and three strikeouts in Game 1, but his Dodgers still won, 10-5.
Muncy will take on Zack Littell, who has been a great target for home run props all season. He allowed the second-most homers in the majors, giving up 36 dingers in 32 starts with the Reds and Rays.
Muncy has dealt with multiple injuries this season, but has been very productive when available. He has made great contact since starting to wear glasses and finished the year with 19 homers in 100 games.
Throughout his career, he’s come up big in big games with 13 homers in 63 postseason contests. He smashed his 18th homer of the season against the Phillies in their big showdown series earlier this month.
Muncy is 2-for-5 in his career against Littell and both of his hits have been home runs.
Muncy was understandably rusty after a week off, but I think he’ll be locked in on Wednesday night and I like his home run props at over 3:1 against Littell.
