The Cubs’ bullpen was the story of Game 1 and it might just be the story of Game 2, as well. At least there’s that possibility, as Andrew Kittredge will open this afternoon’s matinee at Wrigley, squaring off with the Padres’ Dylan Cease.
This is already a “do or die” contest for San Diego — the beauty of the three-game Wild Card format. Will they survive to Thursday? I’m not sure. That sounds like a moneyline kind of question. That’s not what this article is for. We’re here to find the best prop bets for today’s tilt in Chicago.
Let’s dive into a few of my favorites on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Padres vs. Cubs Prop Bets for Game 2
Dylan Cease Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+125)
This isn’t really a knock on Cease’s strikeout ability, nor should it be, as the veteran RHP managed an impressive 29.8% strikeout rate throughout the regular season. Instead, this is a play against Cease’s longevity in this game. We saw both managers be very aggressive with their bullpen’s in Game 1, and if you’re Mike Shildt, why wouldn’t you be? San Diego’s reliever group is decorated with studs, including Mason Miller, Adrian Morejon, Jeremiah Estrada and Robert Suarez. Heck, you’ve even got Michael King waiting by the phone if you need some length. Shildt is managing for his life on Wednesday, and if Cease gets into trouble early, there’s a good chance he’s pulled. Remember, even though most of it was bad luck and a poor strand rate (60.4%), Cease really struggled away from Petco Park in 2025, posting an ugly 5.58 ERA on the road. The Cubs also posted the NL’s lowest called + swinging strike percentage this year (25.9%). The team is not easy to strikeout.
Fernando Tatis Jr. 1+ Home Run (+453)
Manny Machado 1+ Home Run (+456)
The wind is blowing in today at Wrigley, but even that might not be enough to keep Shota Imanaga in the park. Let’s just say there’s a reason that the aforementioned Kittredge is opening this game. While home runs were always the red flag in Imanaga’s profile as he made his way over from Japan, I don’t think anyone ever assumed things would get this bad. Dating back to July 25, Imanaga has conceded 20 long balls in just 69.2 innings of work. That’s a whopping 2.58 opponent home runs per nine. Even if you don’t want to go back that far, Imanaga surrendered multiple homers in five of his final six starts of the regular season — hence why I feel pretty confident in taking two different Padres’ home runs props.
In general, a fourth percentile ground ball rate (30.0%) and a sixth percentile opponent barrel rate (11.6%) is not a sustainable way to pitch and I expect San Diego’s bats will be able to take advantage when Imanaga is inserted into this contest. Manny Machado was much more dangerous against LHPs in 2025, mustering a .244 ISO within the split compared to a more modest .164 mark versus RHPs. Meanwhile, Fernando Tatis Jr. re-found his power stroke towards the end of the regular season, smacking seven home runs in September with a .256 ISO and a 151 wRC+.
