After being a consensus top-30 pick in fantasy football drafts this summer, A.J. Brown has been one of the season’s most frustrating players to own. The receiver went off for 25.9 FPTS vs. the Rams in Week 3, but outside of this performance, Brown hasn’t scored more than 7.7 FPTS in his other three starts.
Among all receivers, Brown ranks 47th in FPTS per game (8.9) and 73rd in FPTS per snap (0.15) after finishing top-25 in both categories last season. While it’s only been four games, Brown’s YPPR is down to just 1.19 after he finished fifth in the stat last season at an elite 2.61.
Brown’s struggles come amid a 4-0 start for the defending Super Bowl champion Eagles and while owning him thus far has been very annoying for fantasy football managers, there are reasons to be hopeful about Brown becoming a productive fantasy asset again.
While the inconsistent numbers don’t reflect it, Brown’s usage has continued to be elite this season. The veteran is running a route on 97% of his team’s dropbacks and he is leading Philadelphia with a 29.5% target share. Brown has racked up two red-zone targets and he has been heavily utilized deep, with six targets over 20 yards, an 11.1 aDOT and 45.7% air yards share for the Eagles.
More big performances like we saw from Brown in Week 3 are coming soon and buying low on the receiver in your fantasy leagues soon is a wise move. Soon is the keyword here, as attempting to trade for Brown following his Week 5 matchup vs. the Broncos makes more sense than doing it now, as he could be in store for another quiet outing in this difficult spot and Brown could possibly be acquired at an even lower cost next week.
Denver is giving up the eighth-fewest yards per pass this season (5.6) and reigning Defensive Player of the Year CB Patrick Surtain will likely cover Brown for most of this tilt. If the wideout produces single-digit FPTS for the fourth time this season in this spot, which is certainly possible, Brown’s value will be extremely low relative to his preseason ranks and fantasy managers may be very eager to cut ties with him.
