This is it: arguably the most anticipated match of the 2025-26 Champions League League Phase and the final that football fans deserved last season. It’ll feature the Ballon d’Or runner-up, Barcelona’s Lamine Yamal, against sixth-place finisher Achraf Hakimi of Paris Saint-Germain.
PSG forward Ousmane Dembélé, who lifted the trophy, will miss the match after suffering a hamstring injury earlier this month, as will fifth-place finisher Raphinha of Barcelona. PSG’s Khvicha Kvaratskhelia and Desiré Doué, who finished 12th and 14th, will also sit this one out. Third-place finisher Vitinha of PSG is uncertain after leaving the team’s Ligue 1 match against Auxerre with an injury.
Barcelona won’t yet be ready to return to the Camp Nou, which has been undergoing renovations for the last two seasons, so the game will be played at the Olympic Stadium. Kickoff is set for 3 p.m. ET (9 p.m. local).
The Blaugrana are -125 favorites to win and +330 to draw at DraftKings Sportsbook, while Les Parisiens are +290.
FC Barcelona vs. Paris Saint-Germain prediction, pick
The defending Champions League winners have shown no signs of slowing down in 2025-26. Through the first six weeks of the Ligue 1 season, they sit top of the table on goal difference with 15 points, with their only loss being a 1-0 defeat to Marseille while Dembélé was at the Ballon d’Or ceremony and João Neves also sat out due to injury. Despite the somewhat depleted squad, PSG managed to control 68% of the possession and uncork 12 shots, but all five of its shots were saved by Gerónimo Rulli. Besides that loss, Les Parisiens have won every other match comfortably and have kept five clean sheets, including the September 17 Champions League opener against Atalanta. In that match, Marquinhos, Kvaratskhelia, Nuno Mendes, and Gonçalo Ramos all found the back of the net in a 4-0 thrashing. PSG’s biggest loss after its UCL triumph was goalkeeper Gianluigi Donnarumma, but Lucas Chevalier has been competent enough. Dembélé’s absence shouldn’t be too much of a concern for the attack, given that Bradley Barcola has scored three goals of his own.
But Barça’s status as the favorite isn’t without reason. The Blaugrana have been dominant this season, sitting on top of La Liga after seven games. They haven’t lost this season, drawing only to Rayo Vallecano in which they had an uncharacteristically poor shooting night. Ferrán Torres and Robert Lewandowski have each scored four goals, and Yamal has notched two goals and three assists, including a cross to Lewandowski in the first minute after being substituted on against Real Sociedad on Sunday. Raphinha’s three goals and two assists will surely be missed, but Marcus Rashford has filled in capably, scoring both of Barcelona’s goals in a hard-fought 2-1 UCL win over Newcastle United. The defense has also been strong, allowing the fourth-fewest shots on target. That unit, likely bolstered by Alejandro Balde’s return, will be tasked with protecting Wojciech Szczęsny, forced back into action by Joan García’s meniscus injury.
Even at the Olympic Stadium, where Barcelona has lost just four games since the start of last season, this match feels like a toss-up, especially with Szczęsny in net. The Blaugrana will have the best player on the pitch in Yamal, but he’ll be somewhat less dangerous without the threat of Raphinha on the other side to put pressure on PSG’s defense. While Les Parisiens will be missing the entire front three that helped them claim their first Champions League title last season, Ramos and Barcola combined for 24 goals last season, and it’ll still have Hakimi, who is undeniably the best right-back in the world. Center back Ilya Zabarnyi has been solid in his first season since arriving from Bournemouth, and Nuno Mendes is as capable as any of slowing down Yamal. Even if Vitinha can’t play, Warren Zaïre-Emery is an extremely well-rounded player and one of the world’s most valuable young talents.
PSG has won each of the last two-legged affairs between these teams, most recently winning 4-1 at the Olympic Stadium on March 16, 2024. Of course, the core of that team was different, with Kylian Mbappé still on the roster, but it’s hard to objectively claim that that Paris team was better than the one that will suit up this afternoon, given the strides players such as Hakimi, Nuno Mendes, and Willian Pacho have made. Add in the +290 odds, and this makes it a no-brainer: I’m taking PSG on the Moneyline and feeling pretty confident about it.
