We’ve got another NFC West showdown this Thursday. Last week was the Seattle Seahawks and the Arizona Cardinals. This week, we get the San Francisco 49ers and the Los Angeles Rams in Los Angeles.
The 49ers, Seahawks and Rams are all tied for the division lead at 3-1. San Francisco has scored the fewest points in the division though with 80, while the 75 points allowed is the most in the division. San Francisco is 2-0 on the road while Los Angeles is 2-0 at home.
Los Angeles has three wins over the AFC South. Houston and Tennessee are not impressive wins, but the 27-20 victory in Week 4 certainly was over a very good Indianapolis Colts team. The only loss for the Rams was to the Eagles, 33-26. No shame in that.
San Francisco won their first three games, two against division rivals Seattle and Arizona. The third win was a cupcake one over the New Orleans Saints. In Week 4, Jacksonville travelled across the country and flew back with the 26-21 win.
The 49ers are decimated. George Kittle, Brock Purdy, Ricky Pearsall and Jauan Jennings are all out. Mac Jones will get the start at quarterback while the wide receiver group will consist of Demarcus Robinson, Kendrick Bourne, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Skyy Moore. At least they still have that Christian McCaffrey guy.
The Rams are relatively healthy with all the main pieces good to go.
Both pass defenses have been good. The Rams are third in EPA per dropback while the 49ers are ninth. But San Francisco is 31st in pressure rate and 30th in sacks. Los Angeles, on the other hand, is 10th in pressure rate and second in sacks. The 49ers are fourth in yards per passing attempt while the Rams are 19th.
San Francisco is 14th in EPA per dropback on offense while Los Angeles is eighth.
The run defenses have been middle-of-the-pack with the Rams 17th in EPA per carry while the 49ers are 14th. Los Angeles is eighth in yards per attempt while San Francisco is 13th.
Neither team has been great running the ball, though, as San Francisco is 27th in EPA per carry while Los Angeles is 21st.
These teams are intimately familiar with each other. They split two meetings last season, with each team winning on the road.
DraftKings Sportsbook has LAR -7.5 over SF with the total at 44.5.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL Showdown $1.5M Thursday Night Showdown [$500K to 1st] (SF @ LAR)
Captain’s Picks
Puka Nacua ($17,400 CP): Nacua leads the league with 50 targets. Christian McCaffrey and Chris Olave are tied for second with 43. Nacua has put up at least 25 FPTS in every contest so far, with a high of 39 FPTS. The 49ers are having difficulty applying pressure and play zone at the 10th-highest rate. Guess who PFF has graded as the best receiver against zone defense? Yup.
UTIL Plays
Christian McCaffrey ($11,400): As mentioned above, CMC is second in the NFL with 43 targets. He has also rushed 69 times for 225 yards. The ceiling outcome is unlikely due to all the injuries, but the floor is high due to the expected volume. He’s put up at least 22 FPTS in every contest this season, even with Mac Jones under center.
Kyren Williams ($9,000): The Rams will likely be scoring plenty of points in this one, so I want to try and get a piece of all the action. Williams has rushed 68 times this season, with 12 of those attempts in the red zone. The 49ers have been middle-of-the-pack in EPA per carry on defense.
Rams DST ($4,000): Los Angeles is second in sacks and 10th in pressure rate. The Rams will likely be playing with the lead, forcing San Francisco to tilt towards the air. In four games this season, the unit has put up 11, eight, five and nine FPTS.
Fades
Matthew Stafford ($10,400): Stafford finished with 30.4 FPTS in Week 4. He threw 41 times for 375 yards and three touchdowns. One of those was an 88-yarder on a broken coverage. In the three other games, Stafford put up 14.8, 18.3 and 13.6 FPTS. With no rushing equity, it’s difficult for Stafford to put up a huge game. This fade coincides with the Kyren selection, as the story I’m telling is that Stafford peppers Nacua with targets but Kyren is the one to finish off drives.
THE OUTCOME
Weird things usually find a way to make an appearance on Thursday Night Football, but I’m going to implement Occam’s Razor here. The Rams are at home, are the healthier team and possess the better defense at the moment.
Final Score: Rams 27, 49ers 9
