With their backs against the wall, the Cleveland Guardians forced a Game 3 in the American League Wild Card against the Detroit Tigers. The Tigers pounced to a Game 1 victory off the back of ace Tarik Skubal, who twirled 7.2 innings of one-run ball with 14 strikeouts. The Guards responded in Game 2, erupting for six runs on three homers to snag the win and avoid elimination.
Now, it all comes down to this: nine innings in Cleveland to decide which AL Central squad secures a dance with the Seattle Mariners in the division series.
First pitch at Progressive Field is scheduled for 3:08 p.m. ET on Thursday afternoon. The odds are practically even on DraftKings Sportsbook, with the Tigers listed at -107 and Guardians at -113 on the moneyline. The total is set at seven runs.
Tigers at Guardians, preview
After getting traded from the Tigers to the World Series-winning Dodgers, Jack Flaherty returns to October in a Detroit uniform. There’s just one problem: he’s a far cry from the trade chip that he was last July. Over 31 starts in 2025, he owned a bloated 4.64 ERA with a 3.85 FIP, 1.28 WHIP, and 188 strikeouts across 161.0 innings.
His strikeout numbers are impressive, but there’s not much else to write home about in terms of favorable underlying metrics. With a fastball that hovers around 93 mph, Flaherty gives up a ton of hard-hits and barrels, while struggling to keep the ball on the ground — his 37.1% ground-ball rate ranks in the bottom quarter league-wide.
Flaherty faced Cleveland three times this season and twice down the stretch, all of which resulted in losses. Still, he held a 3.86 ERA across 16 innings with 18 strikeouts.
Toeing the slab for the home team is Slade Cecconi. The 26-year-old righty, acquired from the Diamondbacks in the trade for first baseman Josh Naylor, posted a 4.30 ERA, 4.64 FIP, and 1.19 WHIP with 109 strikeouts in 132 innings over 23 starts.
Cecconi’s underlying data fails to paint a much prettier picture than Flaherty’s. While he rarely walks batters, he gets hit about as hard as anyone in the league. His 49.1% hard-hit rate, 12.2% barrel rate, and 91.7 mph average exit velocity contribute to a whopping .282 xBAA and staggering 5.22 xERA.
The righty faced Detroit in a pair of starts in May and July. Across 12 innings, he surrendered just three runs (2.25 ERA) with 11 strikeouts.
Tigers at Guardians pick, best bet
The Tigers have plenty of big bats — namely Riley Greene, Spencer Torkelson, and Kerry Carpenter — but the team has been lacking severely in the power department through the first two games of the series. They’re just one of three postseason teams yet to hit a home run, and their .215 slugging percentage ranks at the bottom.
The Guardians also have one of the weaker offenses in the postseason, but they stack up much better against right-handed pitching. Five of the six runs they racked up on Wednesday were against righties. What’s more: all but three of their starters on Wednesday were left-handed batters — two of those three are switch hitters.
One of those switch-hitters is their star player, Jose Ramirez. He has just one hit through the first two games, but has already racked up four walks, including an intentional free pass. Having not gotten many pitches in the strike zone, he could pounce on the next one he sees — propelling his club back to the ALDS in the process.
