This afternoon, Real Madrid will play the longest European away day in the club’s history when it travels more than 4,000 miles to Almaty, Kazakhstan for its second League Phase game in the 2025-26 UEFA Champions League.
The Galacticos’ clash against tournament debutants Kairat Almaty will begin at 12:45 p.m. ET (9:45 p.m. local) in Kazakhstan’s largest city, some 175 miles further east than China’s westernmost point. Though there is no roof at the Central Stadium, conditions should be good; by drawing Kairat early in the tournament, Madrid is avoiding winter in the foothills of the Tien Shan.
If Almaty wins, it’ll arguably be the largest upset in tournament history. Los Blancos are -1000 favorites to win and +1000 to draw at DraftKings Sportsbook, while the Kazakh side is +2000.
Real Madrid at Kairat Almaty prediction, pick
Real Madrid is off to a strong start in La Liga, winning six of seven matches, including three by multiple goals. Los Blancos also thrashed Marseille in their Champions League opener, producing 3.6 expected goals’ worth of chances to the French side’s 0.8, and the 2-1 scoreline would have been a lot more lopsided if not for Gerónimo Rulli’s incredible 13-save performance. Kylian Mbappé has been a man on a mission so far after watching his former club Paris Saint-Germain win its first-ever treble, bashing home eight goals in seven matches, and Vinicius Júnior has four assists. The only cause for concern is that Real lost 5-2 to Atlético in the Madrid Derby, losing captain Dani Carvajal to a calf injury in the process. He, Trent Alexander-Arnold, Éder Militão, and Antonio Rüdiger, will all miss the match, leaving the Spanish giants pretty thin in the back.
That defensive vulnerability shouldn’t matter too much against Kairat; Los Blancos’ reserve team, Castilla, has more than two-thirds of the Kazakh side’s combined market value. The Nation’s Team was impressive in qualification, beating Celtic in penalties after two scoreless legs, but it lost, 4-1, to Sporting in its debut. In that match, the Lisbon-based side managed 20 shots to Kairat’s nine and scored three goals between the 65th and 68th minutes alone to turn a fairly competitive affair into a rout. There were some positives for the Nation’s Team, which managed more tackles, interceptions, and clearances than Sporting, and substitute Edimilson Filho scored the club’s first ever UCL goal, but to lose badly against a side starting backup goalkeeper João Virgínia isn’t ideal. Kairat doesn’t even lead the Kazakhstan Premier League, trailing FC Astana by a point with a game in hand despite conceding just 18 goals in 23 matches. It does have Dastan Satpayev, who ranks third in the division in goals and just turned 17 last month. Satpayev will join Chelsea after his 18th birthday.
Given Madrid’s injury crisis and the matches against Villarreal, Juventus, and Barcelona approaching in October, it’s unlikely that Xabi Alonso will play anywhere near a full-strength XI, although he’s named a relatively strong squad that includes Mbappé, Jude Bellingham, and first-choice goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois. The match could be a good opportunity to re-integrate Endrick, who only recently started training with the team again after suffering a hamstring injury in April. Rodrygo, who’s played only 122 total minutes this season, could also feature heavily. If Mbappé and Vinicius play, they’ll probably be second-half substitutes after each played the full 90 minutes against Atléti. Almaty shouldn’t be expected to park the bus, given that it played an attacking formation against Sporting, so Rodrygo shouldn’t have a problem dicing up the defense, whose most valuable player is worth 1% of Rodrygo’s 90 million Euros on Transfermarkt.
With a home crowd that will surely be buzzing to watch its team against the most famous opponent that it has ever faced, it will certainly be a memorable matchup for Madrid’s youngsters and it will go down in the Champions League annals, regardless of the result. If Kairat is ever going to be motivated to put on a show, it’ll be this match, given its players’ wild celebrations upon learning that they’d get to face Los Blancos. It won’t be enough — Rodrygo will lead his team to a win — but it will be entertaining throughout.
