The Aces are hosting the Fever for Game 5 of this semifinals series Tuesday. This best-of-five series is tied 2-2 and the winner will advance to the WNBA Finals to face the Mercury. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Las Vegas is favored by eight points and this game carries a total of 158.5 points.
Below, I break down Game 5 between the Aces and the Fever and give a pick for this contest.
Aces vs. Fever preview, prediction
The Fever kept their season alive with an impressive win in Game 4 this past Sunday, defeating the Aces 90-83. It was a pretty even match in most major categories, but Indiana won the battle on the glass with 12 more rebounds and the Fever produced 12 second-chance points, compared to zero for Las Vegas. Also, the Fever generated 25 points off turnovers, whereas the Aces only scored 16 points in that department.
Kelsey Mitchell, per usual, stepped up for the Fever, leading the team with 25 points and Odyssey Sims was ultra-efficient, scoring 18 points on 6-of-9 shooting. However, the main story for Indiana was Aliyah Boston, who came alive with 24 points, 14 rebounds, five assists, two blocks and two steals. Before this, the former No. 1 overall pick hadn’t scored more than 12 points in each of the first three games of this series. Boston’s presence in the paint as a scorer and rebounder was huge for this Fever team that has struggled to counter A’ja Wilson’s dominance inside.
The four-time MVP was once again outstanding in Game 4, posting 31 points, nine rebounds, four steals, three blocks and three assists. Her sidekick in Jackie Young was also great with 18 points, nine assists and five rebounds, and veteran Chelsea Gray added 12 points, nine assists and five steals. However, after these three, no one for the Aces cracked double-digits. After scoring 18 and 16 points in Las Vegas’ wins in Games 2 and 3, NaLyssa Smith only finished with eight points in the Game 4 loss, which was very reminiscent of her quiet four-point showing in the Game 1 defeat for the Aces.
Smith bouncing back in Game 5 would be massive for the Aces and there is certainly hope of that happening with this series shifting back to Las Vegas, as role players tend to always play better at home. The Aces also need to do a better job rebounding and on defense, specifically against Boston. If Las Vegas can slow down the center after her Game 4 eruption, the Aces will be in a prime position to advance to the WNBA Finals on Tuesday. Boston is 3.7 PPG worse on the road than at home this season and she is only averaging 11.5 PPG in her last 10 road starts, so Boston coming back down to earth in Game 5 is likely.
Aces vs. Fever pick, best bet
The Fever deserve a ton of credit for making it this far despite all of their injuries, but with Game 5 back in Las Vegas, it’s time for the Aces to finally end this series and move on. Las Vegas leads the playoffs in net rating, while the Fever rank fourth and the Aces are 17-5 at home this season, whereas Indiana is just 11-11 on the road.
Las Vegas -8 is a viable bet, but with this being a win-or-go-home Game 5, backing this game for under its 158.5 points makes more sense. The defensive intensity will be elevated with so much on the line and in the seven matchups between the Aces and the Fever this season, these contests are averaging 157.7 PPG and four of these seven contests have stayed under 158.5 points.
