It’s only fitting that the first night of the MLB postseason ends in Los Angeles. The defending World Series champion Dodgers are hungry for another title run — and their road back to the Fall Classic begins with a best-of-three Wild Card showdown against the Cincinnati Reds.
The Dodgers stumbled at times during the regular season — costing them a first-round bye — but the Shohei Ohtani-led squad held on to claim its 12th NL West crown in 13 years. The Reds, meanwhile, slipped into the last Wild Card spot amidst a historic late-season collapse by the New York Mets.
Los Angeles enters October with the third-best odds to win the World Series at +500. Cincinnati, on the other hand, is hoping for a Cinderella run as a +3500 longshot. The winner of the series will advance to face the Philadelphia Phillies in the NLDS — the current title favorites at +425.
The Dodgers took five of six games against the Reds during the regular season, outscoring them 30-15.
First pitch at Dodger Stadium is scheduled for 9:08 p.m. ET on Tuesday. The Dodgers enter as -206 moneyline favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook, and the total is set at seven runs.
Reds at Dodgers, preview
On Tuesday night, the Reds will hand the ball to their ace: Hunter Greene. The 26-year-old right-hander missed over two months of the regular season with a strained right groin, but has been nothing short of dominant when healthy. Across 19 starts this year, Greene posted a 2.76 ERA, 3.28 FIP, and 0.94 WHIP with 132 strikeouts in 107.2 innings.
Greene attacks batters with a blazing four-seamer that can touch triple digits. His 6.2% walk rate pairs well with a career-best 31.4% strikeout rate. He generates plenty of whiffs and chases, and his pitching run value (20) ranks in the top 94th percentile league-wide.
He doesn’t allow many hits — but when he does, they’re loud. Greene has surrendered a steep 45% hard-hit rate and a 9.6% barrel rate while struggling to keep the ball on the ground. That could be a cause for concern against the NL’s most dangerous offense.
Things got ugly the last time Greene pitched in Los Angeles. On Aug. 25, he got tagged for five runs (three earned) in just five innings, allowing six hits and two walks with only three strikeouts. Andy Pages crushed a solo shot in the third — then he launched a two-run homer in the fifth as the Dodgers cruised to a 7-0 victory.
The Dodgers announced their Game 1 starter will be Blake Snell — precisely the type of moment the team envisioned when they signed the two-time Cy Young winner to a monster contract this winter. Injuries have limited Snell to just 11 starts in his first season with the Dodgers, but the small sample size has yielded phenomenal results. Over 61.1 innings, Snell posted a 2.35 ERA, 2.70 FIP, and 1.26 WHIP with 72 strikeouts.
The 32-year-old southpaw has some of the nastiest stuff in the game — just check his Baseball Savant page. Nearly every metric is deep red. Snell’s offspeed run value (8), average exit velocity (86.2 mph), chase rate (33.9%), and whiff rate (35.6%) all rank in the top 95th percentile or better.
Snell racks up strikeouts and limits hard contact — but walks remain his Achilles’ heel. The lefty issues free passes at a 10.2% clip, landing in the bottom 20th percentile of the MLB. In October, one big swing can change everything — and the last thing you want is traffic on the basepaths when that moment comes.
Reds at Dodgers pick, best bet
Tuesday’s game may be a battle between aces, but the offensive matchup is far more one-sided. Cincinnati posted a .706 team OPS and hit 167 homers this season — modest numbers that hover around the bottom third of the majors. A few of their players caught fire during their September surge — Tyler Stephenson held a .908 OPS in the final month — but not a single Reds hitter with 150+ plate appearances finished with an OPS over .800. The Reds’ franchise shortstop, Elly De La Cruz, led the team with 22 home runs, followed by Spencer Steer with 21.
Standing across from them is an offensive juggernaut. The Dodgers led the National League with a .768 team OPS and a whopping 244 home runs. Even in the worst season of Mookie Betts’ career, he still hit 20 home runs — becoming the fifth Dodger to do so this year. And while Will Smith may miss the Wild Card as he nurses a hairline fracture in his right hand, the lineup still features elite bats in Pages, Teoscar Hernandez, reigning World Series MVP Freddie Freeman, and the modern-day Babe Ruth.
Shohei Ohtani crushed 55 home runs with a 1.014 OPS this season — another remarkable campaign that will surely earn him a third-straight MVP. When he’s not on the mound, Ohtani will be eager to deliver in the batter’s box after failing short of expectations in his first postseason appearance last year.
