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Best Aaron Judge prop bet for Yankees vs. Red Sox on Tuesday 9/30/25

Best Aaron Judge prop bet for Yankees vs. Red Sox on Tuesday 9/30/25

Sports Betting Picks MLB DraftKings Sportsbook Insights

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By: Keagan Smith

Baseball fans couldn’t ask for a better AL Wild Card matchup than the one between the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox set to get rolling later today. With two bitter rivals in a win-or-go-home series, the stakes don’t get much higher than this.

At 6:08 p.m. EST on Tuesday evening, first pitch kicks off Game 1 of this Wild Card duel. The Yankees are -137 favorites on the Moneyline with the run total set at 6.5. Who better to place a wager on than the best hitter in baseball? Here’s the best Aaron Judge prop bet on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Best Aaron Judge prop bet for AL Wild Card Game 1

Make no mistake about it, Aaron Judge remains the best hitter in baseball. His 2025 regular season stat line concluded with some gargantuan numbers. The multi-time MVP’s .331/.457/.688 slash line paced all qualified hitters in the MLB, and he finished the year as one of just two batters with a 1.000 OPS or better alongside Shohei Ohtani. Judge also ranked second in runs (137), fourth in hits (179), fourth in home runs (53), and fifth in RBIs (114). It’s difficult to put his excellence into words, which is exactly why we’re targeting his prop bet lines tonight.

The Red Sox start lefty Garrett Crochet (2.59 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 255 SO), one of the top pitchers in the AL this season. The matchup does potentially limit Judge slightly as he’s just 3-for-15 in his career against Crochet with a staggering 11 strikeouts, but two of those three hits both went for homers. The veteran hitter does see the benefit of a righty-on-lefty split as he slashes .341/.491/.789 against southpaws this season.

The top prop bet for Judge we’re targeting tonight is 2+ total bases at +106 odds. He finished second in total bases this season with 372, just eight fewer than the leader, Ohtani. With an average of 2.43 total bases per game, Judge’s numbers indicate he can go over that line on any given night, and he averaged 2.3 total bases per contest over his last 10 games of the regular season. As one of the best power bats in baseball, the Yankees’ superstar brings the potential to pick up at least two total bases and cash this prop bet with a single hit, and while it may not happen against Crochet, he’ll have an advantage over pretty much any reliever who comes out of the Red Sox bullpen.

Best bet: Aaron Judge 2+ total bases (+106)

Keagan Smith
Keagan Smith
Keagan is a Texas-based editor and analyst who believes sports are the true eighth wonder of the world. After starting out in local media, he’s provided coverage for DraftKings Network since 2024. He gravitates toward football, hoops and hockey, but is happy to watch and write about any game that involves a ball or a puck. While his own athletic career ended in middle school, he’s also an avid fantasy player with a soft spot for dynasty formats, spending countless hours crafting the ever-elusive perfect squad.
Disclaimer

I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.