Week 4 of the NFL season will conclude with a Monday Night Football doubleheader. In the first matchup, Tua Tagovailoa and the Miami Dolphins will host the New York Jets as both teams battle for their first win of the season.
It has been an uneasy start for Tagovailoa and the Dolphins in the early stages of the season. They are coming off losses to the Colts, Patriots and Bills to start the year. This is an important matchup before the season slips into full disaster with frustrations already beginning to boil over in Miami.
Looking at the odds on DraftKings Sportsbook, the Dolphins enter as 2.5-point favorites and hold -162 odds on the moneyline. The Jets hold +136 odds of getting the outright victory, with the game total set at 44.5 points.
There are plenty of ways to get involved in the action outside of backing a side or total. This article will look at my top Tua Tagovailoa prop bets ahead of tonight’s Week 4 Monday Night Football matchup.
Best Tua Tagovailoa Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
Tua Tagovailoa Over 22.5 Pass Completions (-118)
The stock price of Tua Tagovailoa has taken a significant dip. He is far from the only problem with this Dolphins team, but Tagovailoa has seen some concerning past demons show face in the early stages of this season. Through the opening three matchups, he has completed 69.7% of his pass attempts for 575 yards, five touchdowns and four interceptions.
When the Dolphins offense is at its best, it leans heavily on getting the ball out of Tagovailoa’s hands quickly and allowing its playmakers to make things happen. Expect there to be a conscious effort to return to this style of play as Miami faces off against a vulnerable Jets defense. Through its opening three games, New York ranks 22nd in total yards given up, 25th in net yards per pass attempt and 26th in EPA per pass play. It has given up 230+ passing yards in two of the three games. Josh Allen was the lone quarterback to fail to reach this total, but it is worth noting that he was taken out of the game early due to the nature of the blowout.
Rather than backing his yardage prop, I like Tagovailoa to complete over 22.5 passes tonight. He has completed 14, 22 and 26 passes through the opening three weeks. The former Pro Bowl quarterback is not a threat to run and does his best to avoid hits in the pocket. Expect Miami to lean on its screen passing and check-down game as a major factor in this matchup throughout, and for there to be a concentrated effort in getting the ball out of Tagovailoa’s hands quickly to rebuild his confidence. It was just last season in which he led the NFL in completion percentage and tallied over 22.5 completions in eight of the 11 games he played. Expect tonight to be a step in the right direction in getting back on track and for Tagovailoa to record 23+ pass attempts in the matchup.
Tua Tagovailoa to Throw an Interception (-112)
Even if the Dolphins have a clearer path to relying on their quick passing game, Tua Tagovailoa has put the ball in harm’s way far too often this year to overlook. He has four interceptions through the opening three games, notching at least one in each matchup. Throughout his career, he has 48 interceptions across 65 starts and has tallied as many as 14 over a season.
The Jets have yet to tally an interception this season, but they have 12 breakups and had seven picks last year. They have playmakers on the defensive side of the ball, so expect the Jets to rush Tagovailoa’s time in the pocket with six sacks notched already on the season. He is currently posting a career-worst 4.5% interception rate, and New York is good enough to capitalize on a turnover if he allows enough of an opportunity.
Expect this to be the case tonight. The Miami offense has yet to hit its stride, and even if a more prominent focus is put on the short passing game, Tagovailoa has shown a far too consistent willingness to put the ball in harm’s way. It takes just one slip-up for the Alabama product to be punished, and he has not inspired any confidence in why this won’t be the case tonight. Just looking at the last three years alone, Tagovailoa has thrown 25 interceptions across 31 starts. With the odds set at -112 on DraftKings Sportsbook, this is great value based on the recent track record. Don’t be shocked if things get worse before they get better for the Dolphins, and look for Tagovailoa to add to his interception total tonight.
