New York Jets at Miami Dolphins
We have a MNF doubleheader to close out NFL Week 4, with the early game featuring and AFC East matchup between the Jets and Dolphins. Unless we head towards another tie here, someone’s going to collect their first win of the season in Miami, with both teams out to ugly 0-3 starts. The Dolphins have gotten more attention for their struggles, but have at least been competitive in their last two games against the Patriots and Bills.
That last loss in Buffalo saw Miami take a good Bills team down to the wire, and the Dolphins have had plenty of time to recover and prep for the Jets — last playing on TNF in Week 3. While I lean to Miami as the side, I’m looking towards a player prop in this one. De’Von Achane has been the focal point of the Dolphins on offense, and while he’s been a dual threat, some of that has been game script related. This feels like a good spot for Achane to have his breakout game on the ground as a home favorite against a poor rush defense.
Through three games, the Jets rank 26th against the run, allowing 133 yards per game — and that’s with Pittsburgh’s running backs only combining for 54 yards back in Week 1. In the two games since, we’ve seen James Cook post a 21-132-2 line and Bucky Irving a 25-66-0 line. Achane has done well on somewhat limited carries to start the season, due to game script, totaling 147 rushing yards on just 30 carries. He’s gone for 55 or more rushing yards in two of Miami’s three games, with the under landing against a Patriots defense that actually ranks second against the run.
This is a good spot for Achane to get involved early and break some big plays. If Miami can build a lead in this one, he could also be featured late to try and secure the first win of the season for the Dolphins.
NFL Pick: De’Von Achane OVER 54.5 Rushing Yards (-111) – 1-unit
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