Cincinnati Bengals at Denver Broncos
We have a MNF doubleheader to close out NFL Week 4, with the late game featuring the 2-1 Bengals at the 1-2 Broncos. While Joe Burrow was able to squeak out a 2-0 start for Cincy, things went downhill with Jake Browning under center in Week 3, getting pounded in Minnesota. Meanwhile, following a Week 1 victory over the Titans, the Broncos have let a couple of games slip through their fingers.
Denver easily could be 3-0, and I expect the Broncos to play desperate in this one. While Browning is capable at quarterback, this is a tough ask to go on the road against a solid Denver defense in primetime, hungry for a victory. Cincinnati’s defense has been dreadful to starter the season, and while I lean to Denver in the game (also a good teaser leg), I’m looking to fire on a player prop on the Broncos’ side.
JK Dobbins has secured the lead role in Denver’s backfield, and we’ve seen it lead to production thus far. Dobbins finished just under this number back in Week 1, rushing for 63 yards and a touchdown on 16 carries. While his carries have gone down by week, his production has gone up — 14-76-1 against the Colts and 11-83-1 against the Chargers. The Broncos drafted RJ Harvey, which initially made this backfield a bit murky. However, the rookie has seen his carries and snaps on the decline since Week 1.
Harvey played just 15 snaps (29%) last week, and carried the ball twice against the Chargers. Meanwhile, Dobbins saw his highest snap percentage of the season in Week 3 at 67%. The spot sets up perfect for Dobbins, with the Broncos priced as large home favorites against a soft run defense. Prior to Quinshon Judkins suiting up for the Browns, Cleveland had absolutely no run game in Week 1 against the Bengals — three running backs combined for 40 yards on 21 carries. Since then, the Bengals have given up 139 rushing yards to the Jaguars and 169 rushing yards to the Vikings.
Look for Dobbins to break some carries in this matchup, and be in position to run the ball in the second half with Denver playing with the lead late. All signs point to this being a strong spot for JK Dobbins to have a big game on the ground.
NFL Pick: JK Dobbins OVER 64.5 Rushing Yards (-110) – 1-unit
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