Week 4 of the NFL season will conclude with another Monday Night doubleheader. In the first matchup of the night, the Miami Dolphins host the New York Jets.
Both teams enter with a 0-3 record. The Dolphins have dropped their matchups to the Colts, Patriots, and Bills, while the Jets’ three losses came at the hands of the Steelers, Bills, and Buccaneers. Justin Fields will make his return to the field for the Jets after missing last week with a concussion.
Looking at the odds for the matchup, the Dolphins enter as three-point favorites and hold -155 odds on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Jets hold +130 odds of getting the outright victory with the game total set at 44.5 points.
There are plenty of ways to get involved in the action beyond just backing a side. This article will look at my three favorite prop bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for the Week 4 Monday Night Football matchup.
Jets at Dolphins Best Prop Bets
Breece Hall Over 56.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
Through the opening three weeks, Breece Hall has tallied 38 rush attempts for 157 yards as well as 78 yards through the air. He broke free for 107 yards in the season-opener, but has been held below 30 yards in the past two games. This is a great opportunity to get back on track in a favorable matchup with the Dolphins.
Miami enters this matchup ranked 30th in points allowed per game and 27th in total yards given up per game. Looking just at their rushing defense, they rank 29th in rushing yards allowed per game, 28th in rushing touchdowns conceded, and 23rd in net yards per rush attempt. The Dolphins have allowed the eighth-most yards before contact to running backs through the opening three weeks, while the Jets have gotten the seventh-most yards before contact per carry. Expect New York to have the advantage at the line of scrimmage and for Hall to have an opportunity to make some plays when he gets to the second level.
So far this year, the Dolphins have given up 108 rushing yards to James Cook and 71 yards to Jonathan Taylor. While Rhamondre Stevenson led the Patriots with 54 rushing yards against the Dolphins, New England rushed for 122 yards total. Hall has averaged as many as 66.1 rushing yards per game over a season and is a caliber of talent beyond what he has been able to put on display to this point. Look for him to capitalize on this favorable matchup and rush for over 56.5 rushing yards for the second time this season.
Tua Tagovailoa Over 22.5 Completions (-123)
The career trajectory of Tua Tagovailoa has taken an unfortunate turn. He is far from the only problem with this Dolphins team, but he has been a far cry from the guy who led the NFL in passing yards in 2023 and completion percentage last year. Through the opening three games, he has completed 69.7% of his pass attempts for 575 yards, five touchdowns, and four interceptions.
When these Dolphins are at their best, they are getting the ball in the hands of their playmakers early and allowing them to make things happen. Look for them to make an effort to play closer to their identity and make adjustments in this game. New York has a vulnerable defense that ranks 26th in EPA per pass play, 22nd in total yards given up, and 25th in net yards per pass attempt. They have given up 230+ passing yards in two of the three games; Josh Allen was the lone quarterback that failed to reach this margin, though it was due to him being substituted out of the game early amidst a blowout.
Rather than target the yards, I am backing Tagovailoa’s completions. He has completed 14, 22, and 26 passes through the opening three weeks. The Alabama product is not a major threat to run and does his best to avoid hits in the pocket. Expect the check-down game to be a factor in this matchup throughout, and for there to be a concentrated effort in getting the ball out of Tagovailoa’s hands quickly to help build up his confidence. It was just last season when he led the NFL in completion percentage and tallied over 22.5 completions in eight of the 11 games he played. Look for him to get closer to being back on track tonight and complete at least 23 pass attempts.
Justin Fields Over 45.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
The New York Jets brought in Justin Fields this offseason to serve as their starting quarterback. It has been a mixed bag of results thus far, with the Ohio State product suffering a concussion in Week 2 and missing the past game, which complicated the sample size. In the opening matchup against the Steelers, Fields impressed by throwing for 218 yards, rushing for 48, and adding three total scores. Before he suffered the concussion in the fourth quarter of the matchup with the Bills, Fields had completed just three of his 11 passes for 27 yards. He did, however, add 49 rushing yards on five carries.
There may not be another first-round quarterback to be this deep in his career without a true feel of how good he really is. While his passing prop of 185.5 passing yards feels like a risk, expect Fields to continue leaning into his legs. He has rushed the ball 17 times in less than two games this year and is averaging 5.7 yards per carry. Fields tallied over 45.5 rushing yards in both games he played, even while leaving the second one early.
Miami has already allowed 82 rushing yards and three touchdowns on the ground to opposing quarterbacks this year. They have struggled to stop the run across the board, as acknowledged in the Breece Hall rushing prop write-up, and Fields still appears most comfortable leaning on his legs as the baseline of his production. It could take just two chunk plays for him to reach his total, and he is averaging 8.5 rushing attempts per game. Fields averaged as many as 76.2 rushing yards per game across a season during his time as the Bears’ starter. Expect this to remain a foundation of his skillset and for the Jets’ starter to run for over 45.5 rushing yards again tonight.
