It’s not quite October yet, but it’s still time for playoff baseball! All four Wild Card series get underway this Tuesday, setting up a glorious weekday quadrupleheader (is that a thing?). One way to make the games even more fun is by finding some juicy home run props to attack as the playoffs begin. After taking a look at the matchups, game environments, odds and current form of the players available, my favorite home run props for Tuesday are from Jose Ramirez, Dansby Swanson and Max Muncy.
Just like during the regular season, here’s a quick reminder before we step to the plate and point to the flagpole to call our shot — all home run props are long-shot bets. Even the top home run hitters are more likely not to hit a home run in any single game, especially against playoff-level pitching. Home run props are never “safe” picks, but a few key indicators can point us in the right direction. Just remember that home run props are always volatile plays.
As a result, home run props can be a fun part of your betting strategy, but they shouldn’t be heavily relied on since they’re uncertain. What makes home run props exciting is that the longer odds yield big returns when they do hit. I typically play home run props individually and in round robins at a small unit size, boosting the ceiling even higher if multiple home run props go green on a given night.
Breaking down the numbers and matchups, here is why I like these three home run props on Tuesday’s slate.
Best Home Run Props on DraftKings Sportsbook
Jose Ramirez to record 1+ home runs (+483)
Am I ready to take on Tarik Skubal in the first play in my home run props? Yes I am! The Tigers managed to hold onto a playoff spot, but they collapsed over the last several weeks of the season and now have to go on the road and deal with a red-hot Guardians squad that passed them for the division title.
Skubal had a great season overall, going 13-6 with a 2.21 ERA and 2.45 FIP, but he did allow 18 homers in 31 starts. Nine of those home runs came in his last 10 starts, when opponents posted a 10.8% barrel rate against him.
The Guardians don’t have many superstars, but they do have one outstanding hitter who is so well known for being underrated that he probably isn’t anymore. Whether you think he’s properly rated or not, Ramirez is definitely a key to Cleveland’s offense and will need a big postseason for the team to make a run.
He finished the year with 30 homers and 44 stolen bases to go with a .283 batting average and a .360 wOBA.
Ramirez is 12-for-36 (.333) in his regular season career against Skubal with three doubles and a triple, and he could add a home run against him in the postseason.
The 33-year-old switch-hitter has better power numbers against righties, but a better average against lefties like Skubal. He’s also hit slightly more of his home runs at home, where he has a .369 wOBA and 141 wRC+ on the year.
In his postseason career, Ramirez has four homers in 42 games, including two in his 10 postseason games last year. While taking home run props against Skubal is high-risk, the longer odds for Ramirez make him a good value play in this contest.
Dansby Swanson to record 1+ home runs (+730)
If you’re looking for even more value in your home run props, here’s a long shot for you–Dansby Swanson at over 7:1.
Swanson hit 24 homers on the year and has 20+ homers in four of the last five seasons. He hit three homers in his last 21 games with multiple at-bats, with a 45.5% hard-hit rate and a 9.1% barrel rate over that span. On the season, his numbers were a little higher with a 47.7% hard-hit rate, 11.7% barrel rate, and an average exit velocity of over 90 miles per hour. Swanson hit 17 of his 24 homers off righties this season, and he had a solid .313 wOBA at Wrigley Field this season.
Swanson and the Cubs will face Nick Pivetta and the Padres. Pivetta had a great first season in San Diego, going 13-5 with a 2.87 ERA and 3.49 FIP. Pivetta’s best work has been at home, though, and he has a 3.55 ERA and 4.21 FIP on the road. He has a 1.49 HR/9 on the road as well, after giving up 13 homers in 14 road starts.
Pivetta also has favorable splits against lefties, but righties have shown good power against him, which is why I like Swanson’s longer odds just slightly more than I like Pete Crow-Armstrong’s home run props (+610) or Michael Busch’s home run props (+356). Righties like Swanson have hit 15 of the 22 homers Pivetta has surrendered this season, with a .272 wOBA against him overall and a .322 wOBA against him when he’s pitching on the road.
Swanson didn’t finish the season especially hot, but he has a good history in the postseason with five dingers and a .302 career wOBA in his 37 postseason contests. On top of that, Swanson is 10-for-34 in his career against Pivetta with a pair of home runs in their past matchups.
Max Muncy to record 1+ home runs (+372)
In the nightcap, the Dodgers host the Reds in the final game of the day. They’ll also face a tough matchup in Hunter Greene, but Greene has been prone to giving up homers even though his overall numbers have been very strong.
The 26-year-old flamethrower was limited to 19 starts this year and had a 2.76 ERA, but he also allowed 15 homers. Lefties hit nine of those 15 dingers with a .276 wOBA. Like Pivetta, his home numbers are much stronger than his numbers on the road, and lefties on the road have a .363 wOBA against him.
Muncy has dealt with multiple injuries this season, but has been very productive when available. He has made great contact since starting to wear glasses and finished the year with 19 homers in 100 games.
He missed the final week of the season with a lower-body injury, but he’s expected to be back in the lineup on Tuesday night. He homered off Greene, going 3-for-5 with a homer in their past meetings, and he has hit 16 of his 19 homers off righties like Greene. Of those 19 homers, 15 also came at Dodger Stadium, where he has a .405 wOBA.
Not only are the splits in his favor, but Muncy is a proven postseason producer, with 13 homers in his 62 playoff games, giving him a .365 wOBA in the postseason.
Muncy hasn’t played in a week, but I’m willing to take a shot on these home run props, since he brings good value at almost 4:1 as the final of my three home run props for Tuesday’s Wild Card openers.
