I think it’s safe to say that the Broncos have been a little underwhelming to start this season, especially after making the postseason with a rookie QB last year. To wit, after back-to-back losses on last second field goals, Denver enters Monday Night Football with a 1-2 record and some bad mojo.
Still, it’s not like things are much better on the Bengals’ side of the ledger. Joe Burrow is injured and the team looked completely hapless in last Sunday’s 48-10 defeat in Minnesota. It’s not like Burrow is coming back any time soon, either.
I’m not sure which of these teams will right the ship this evening, but I am sure that someone will score the first touchdown. Let’s break down the odds and some picks on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Bengals vs. Broncos First Touchdown Scorer Prop Bets
J.K. Dobbins First Touchdown Scorer (+475)
It’s not sexy to back the guy with the lowest odds, but I’d honestly be fine betting on either of these starting RBs to find the end zone first. Both Dobbins and Chase Brown (+1000) have had a complete monopoly of their team’s red zone running back carries so far this season, with only Jake Browning (+4000) and Bo Nix (+1400) seeing the occasion scramble or designed run. In fact, Brown’s 88.9% red zone attempt share is the highest rate in the whole NFL, but when push comes to shove, it’s must easier to trust a Broncos’ asset to score first — especially after Cincinnati’s abysmal Week 3 performance. Dobbins has seen double-digit carries in all three of his games and he’s also scored a touchdown each and every week. Why would that stop now? It’s not like he doesn’t have the opportunity.
Mike Gesicki First Touchdown Scorer (+3500)
The general consensus on the Bengals’ offense is so low at the moment, that Mike Gesicki’s first touchdown scorer odds didn’t even make it into my screenshot — but that’s sort of a blessing. It gives us the ability to take a true long shot on this Monday Night Football slate. It was Drew Sample (+6500), not Gesicki, that Browning found in garbage time last Sunday for Cincinnati’s lone touchdown of the day; however, Sample’s only run a route on 64.2% of his passing snaps so far this season. He’s the blocking TE, while Gesicki is the receiving threat. To that end, it’s Gesicki who is tied with Ja’Marr Chase (+1300) for the team lead in red zone targets (3). A majority of those looks came with Burrow at QB, yet that doesn’t change the fact that Gesicki tends to be on the field in high leverage passing downs near the goal line. Could he break out the griddy early on and make bettors very happy? I think so.
