The Mercury are hosting the Lynx for Game 4 of this semifinals series between the teams. Phoenix leads this best-of-five 2-1 and the Mercury can advance to the WNBA Finals with a win Sunday. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Phoenix is favored by five points and this game carries a total of 156 points.
Below, I break down this Game 4 between the Mercury and the Lynx and give a pick.
Mercury vs. Lynx preview, prediction
The Mercury took a 2-1 series lead Friday with a 84-76 win in Game 3. It was a very controversial contest, as to seal the win for Phoenix, Alyssa Thomas stole the ball from Napheesa Collier with less than 30 seconds remaining in the game and the superstar suffered an ankle injury on the play that unfortunately will keep her out of Sunday’s win-or-go home Game 4 for the Lynx. It is a big divide among basketball fans right now, as many believe it was a clean steal by Thomas, while many others believe she should have been called for a foul.
Due to her frustration and comments about the call, Lynx head coach Cheryl Reeve was ejected from Game 3 late in the contest and she has been suspended for Game 4, so Minnesota will be without its top player and head coach Sunday, which is obviously extremely unfortunate for this Lynx team that has had an incredible season.
Minnesota finished as the No. 1 seed and led the WNBA in net rating in the regular season. Plus, the Lynx were a rock-solid 7-4 with Collier inactive. However, the superstar finished second in MVP voting and her impact can’t be understated, as Collier finished the regular season second in plus/minus. With the forward inactive this season, Minnesota was an especially different team offensively, scoring 6.3 PPG less than with Collier active.
With Collier sidelined Sunday, all of the Lynx players will need to elevate their game to keep this team’s season alive, but most importantly, Kayla McBride and Courtney Williams will need to step up. With Collier inactive this season, McBride and Williams are leading Minnesota with 15.5 and 12.8 PPG, respectively.
While the Lynx will be down their top player and head coach Sunday, the Mercury are a very confident group after back-to-back wins over this top-seeded Minnesota team. Thomas has been brilliant in this series, averaging a near triple-double of 19.3 points, 9.3 assists and 8.3 rebounds per game. Furthermore, the veteran has been a menace on the defensive end, averaging 3.0 steals per game. In addition to Thomas’ heroics, Satou Sabally and Kahleah Copper have been awesome for Phoenix, scoring 19.0 and 17.0 PPG, respectively.
Mercury vs. Lynx pick, best bet
The Lynx should come together Sunday and play some inspiring basketball for their sidelined superstar in Collier, but expecting Minnesota to defeat this experienced Mercury group on their home floor feels unrealistic at this point.
This season, Phoenix is 15-7 at home and the club is 3-2 vs. the Lynx. All three of these wins vs. Minnesota have been by at least six points and the Mercury -5 is a strong wager for this contest.
