A loaded day of NFL football will conclude with the most highly anticipated matchup of the day. Micah Parsons will make his return to Dallas for the first time as the Packers take on the Cowboys. There is sure to be plenty of pomp and circumstance with Jerry Jones continuing to do himself no favors with some midweek quotes making their rounds.
The Packers are off to a 2-1 start to the season and look like a threat in the NFC. They got off to a 2-0 start to the season but fell last week to the Browns and will be looking to rebound from this. Dallas has not looked as sharp, entering with a 1-2 record, with its lone victory coming over the Giants in a 40-37 win.
Looking at the odds for the matchup, the Packers enter as 7-point favorites and hold -345 odds on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Cowboys hold +275 odds of getting the outright victory with the game total set at 47.5 points.
There are plenty of ways to get involved in the action beyond just backing a side. This article will look at my three favorite prop bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for the Week 4 Sunday Night Football matchup.
Packers at Cowboys Best Prop Bets
Jake Ferguson to Record 7+ Receptions (+107)
CeeDee Lamb will miss tonight’s matchup with a high-ankle sprain, leaving a significant void in the Cowboys’ passing attack. Lamb leads the team with 226 receiving yards through the first three weeks and finished eighth in the NFL in receiving yards last year. But it is Jake Ferguson who leads the Cowboys with 27 receptions, with Lamb behind him with 16. The standout tight end has been targeted 32 times already this season and posted reception totals of five, nine and 13.
Ferguson will be looked at as the top pass catcher tonight and the safety blanket for Dak Prescott throughout. He is coming off 14 targets last week and should be on track for a similar level of volume. This is a matchup that tight ends have had success in, with the Packers allowing the third-most receiving yards (215) and the third-most receptions (21) to the tight end position through their first three weeks. Sam LaPorta and Zach Ertz each pulled in six receptions, while David Njoku pulled in five, and rookie Harold Fannin Jr. added three in last week’s matchup with the Browns.
Ferguson is another level up in terms of both talent and importance to the offense. Expect his role in the offense to remain prominent with Lamb sidelined and for Ferguson to be a focal point of the offensive attack. He has pulled in more than seven receptions in back-to-back games, and expect this to continue in the favorable matchup.
Jordan Love Over 235.5 Passing Yards (-111)
The Cowboys have some legitimate defensive issues, and Jordan Love is built to capitalize on this. Through the opening three weeks, Dallas ranks 27th in points allowed, 30th in total yards allowed, 32nd in passing yards conceded and 32nd in net yards per pass attempt. It also ranks 31st in the NFL in EPA/pass play and has allowed seven passing touchdowns over the past two weeks alone. This is especially concerning considering the matchups came against Russell Wilson, who has since been benched for Jaxson Dart, and Caleb Williams in a blowout loss last week. Wilson and Williams combined for 748 passing yards over the past two weeks.
Jordan Love enters having completed 67.9% of his pass attempts for 663 yards, five touchdowns and an interception so far this season. He threw for 292 passing yards against the Commanders, but he was held under the 235.5-passing yards line against the Lions and Browns. It was a nightmare performance last week by Green Bay, while the game script dictated that Love not throw the ball much against Detroit, as it held a comfortable lead throughout. He was limited to 25 or fewer pass attempts in both games.
This is the perfect get-right spot for the Packers’ franchise quarterback, and expect Love to be active throughout this matchup. It was just two seasons ago that the Utah State product averaged 244.6 passing yards per game, and the Packers have done a nice job building up the group of pass catchers around him this year. Look for him to capitalize on the favorable matchup and for Love to throw for over 235.5 passing yards in this primetime matchup.
George Pickens to Record 80+ Receiving Yards (+192)
One of the more notable offseason additions on the Cowboys’ roster has been former Steelers’ wide receiver George Pickens. Through the opening three weeks, Pickens has pulled in 13 of his 22 targets for 166 yards and two touchdowns. He has tallied exactly 68 receiving yards in back-to-back games entering this matchup.
Expect Pickens’ role to be scaled up with Lamb sidelined. He has been targeted nine times in back-to-back weeks and pulled in five receptions in each. Green Bay’s defense has been strong, but I have more doubts about the secondary than the defensive front. Prescott has been sacked five times already this season, but if he has time to make throws, Pickens will be at the top of the target list.
The Georgia product has played at least 82.4% of the offensive snaps in every game this season and will be moved up the pecking order for this matchup due to Lamb’s injury. The standard receiving prop for Pickens is set at 60.5 yards, which he has cleared in back-to-back games, but I like his chances of surpassing this and producing his best receiving total as a Cowboy and eclipsing 80+ yards through the air. While it was a different offense, Pickens cleared this total in five games last year and also led the NFL with 18.1 yards per reception in 2023. Expect this to be his full breakout and for Pickens to have his best game in Dallas to this point.
