Before the season, this game was circled as a matchup between two exciting NFC quarterbacks. Rookie of the year Jayden Daniels would go head-to-head with Michael Penix Jr. Unfortunately, Daniels has been ruled out, and Penix is coming off a terrible game in a blowout loss to the Falcons. But this sure does make the player prop market interesting.
The Falcons are favored by 2.5 points and hold -135 odds on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Commanders have +114 odds of winning outright, with the game total set at 43.5. There are numerous ways to get involved in the action beyond simply backing a side. This article will look at my three favorite prop bets for this Week 4 game between the Commanders and the Falcons.
Falcons vs. Commanders Best Prop Bets
Marcus Mariota Less Than 204.5 Passing Yards
Not much has gone right for the Falcons so far. However, if there’s one thing they are excelling at, it’s pass defense. Atlanta has allowed the fewest passing yards so far, allowing a measly 598 yards through the air. That does not bode well for Washington’s backup quarterback, Marcus Mariota.
Even in a 41-point romp over the Raiders last week, Mariota threw for only 207 yards. Washington will lean heavily on the run game once again, especially against an Atlanta offense that is struggling to move the ball. Speaking of …
Bijan Robinson Under 80.5 Rushing Yards
Bijan Robinson is making a case as the best all-around running back in the sport. Through three games, the Texas alumnus is averaging 79.7 rushing yards and 54.7 receiving yards per game. But he’s going to have a steep task against this Commanders front seven.
Washington has allowed only 3.7 yards per carry on the season; that’s the eighth-best mark in the NFL. It’s not for a lack of competition, as they have faced Josh Jacobs and Ashton Jeanty in the last two weeks. With the game script unlikely to favor Atlanta as Penix struggles, expect Robinson to contribute more as a receiver than a runner.
Deebo Samuel Under 55.5 Receiving Yards
This really is an “unders across the board” kind of game. I don’t expect much from these offenses, and we can bet accordingly. Deebo Samuel’s Week 1 debut went swimmingly, reeling in seven passes for 77 yards while rushing for a touchdown. Things went down a bit in Week 2, once again catching seven passes but for only 44 yards. Then he was a forgotten man in Week 3, catching only two passes for 11 yards.
Production like Week 3 won’t be the norm. However, it is essential to remember that the 49ers released him to another NFC contender for a reason: they don’t believe he possesses the same level of talent. They were right. Against a stout Falcons pass defense and playing with his backup QB, don’t expect a big day for Samuel.
