The last time the Jets and Dolphins both had winning records was back in 2008. Was the internet even invented yet? Sarcasm, people. Sarcasm. Since 2016, New York has been horrific on offense, finishing 23rd or below in points every season. From 2019 to 2023, New York was 31st, 32nd, 28th, 29th and 29th in points scored. L. O. L. So, New York essentially decided to punt the forward pass and just have Justin Fields run around, but then he got injured so they went to Tyrod Taylor, who was signed to run around in case of emergency.
Mike McDaniel had the Miami offense humming in his first two seasons, finishing 11th and 2nd in points. He was the greatest thing since….hmmm, so many choices but I’m going with Son Heung-Min to LAFC for the Korean-American community in Los Angeles. But things unraveled last season and it’s DEFCON 1 this season. Injuries and roster construction have been the biggest issues, but McDaniel is getting the heat and his seat is scorching.
Miami is 25th in EPA per dropback. Four interceptions have been thrown and the average yards per attempt is only 6.3. The sack rate of 7.4% is the 11th-highest despite being blitzed at the lowest rate in the league at 16.7%. No other team is below 20%. The run game has produced the seventh-highest EPA per carry, but that’s been on only 52 carries, the lowest in the NFL.
New York has the 23rd-highest EPA per dropback and has attempted only 80 passes, the second-lowest mark in the NFL. The rushing attack has the fifth-lowest EPA per carry and the 83 rushes are the fifth-lowest.
Both defenses have been terrible. Miami is fourth in EPA per carry while New York is 13th. The higher the number the more no bueno it is. The pass defenses? Miami is allowing the highest EPA per dropback while New York is third. The Jets do have more talent on the defensive side of the ball, though, so if there is one unit I’d be bullish on, it would be the Jets.
DraftKings Sportsbook has MIA -2.5 over NYJ with the total at 45.5.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $300K Showdown Special [$100K to 1st] (NYJ @ MIA)
Captain’s Picks
Justin Fields ($15,300 CP): Fields only went 16-of-22 for 218 yards and a touchdown in Week 1, but he rushed 12 times for 48 yards and two touchdowns. That was good for 29.5 FPTS. His dual-threat ability provides one of the best floor/ceiling combos on the slate. Miami has seen the third-most rushing attempts by quarterbacks and have allowed a league-leading three touchdowns. In addition, the Dolphins’ secondary is porous and has allowed the highest EPA per dropback. A ceiling game by Fields could be in the works.
UTIL Plays
Garrett Wilson ($10,600): Wilson leads the Jets with 30 targets. 13 of those came with Tyrod Taylor at quarterback, but Wilson did garner nine targets in Week 1 when Fields played a full game. As mentioned in the Fields section, the Dolphins have been one of the worst pass defenses in the league and have cornerbacks that would be way down the depth chart on most teams. If I think Fields is going to have a ceiling game, I want his main man tied to him.
De’Von Achane ($11,800): Speaking of floor/ceiling combos, Achane is one of the best in the entire NFL. He will usually get around 10 carries against light boxes every game, but where he truly devastates is in the pass game. The 23 targets on the season ties Tyreek Hill for the team lead. With 4.32 40-yard dash speed, Achane can take it to the house on any play, from anywhere. He’s put up at least 16 FPTS in all three games this season with a high of 26.2 FPTS. Last season, he went over 20 FPTS nine times with a high of 34 FPTS.
Malik Washington ($3,600): Washington is playing around 50% to 60% of the snaps through three games. He’s garnered 12 targets on the season with one red zone opportunity. He’s also rushed six times. Washington has finished with 4.9, 9.5 and 6.2 FPTS. It’s nothing spectacular, but the floor for the price has been good and his 4.47 40-yard dash can break one on any play.
Fades
Tyreek Hill ($11,000): In Week 14 last season against the Jets, Hill caught 10 of 14 targets for 115 yards and a touchdown, good for 31.3 FPTS. That kind of production is always within the range of outcomes, but Hill has put up eight, 19.9 and 15.9 FPTS this season and the Dolphins’ offensive line is one of the worst in pass protection. That’s why I lean more towards Achane in the passing game with short, quick-hitters.
THE OUTCOME
With two porous defenses, I like this to be an up-and-down affair.
Final Score: Jets 31, Dolphins 28
