Before the season Began, the schedule makers Believed that this game would Be a Bonanza. And why not? Bengals. Broncos. Joe Burrow. Bo Nix. Best offense vs. Best defense. Then the games started and Burrow suffered an Injury and Nix lost his mojo. But the B’s won’t stop, can’t stop as now it’s Jake Browning under center for the Bengals.
What was once an A game is now B-rated entertainment.
Cincinnati is dead-last in EPA per dropback. The five interceptions are the second-most while the 76.2 quarterback rating is the fourth-lowest. The rush offense has been just as bad, as the EPA per carry is the second-worst. The 2.4 yards per carry is the lowest by a wide margin, and the only team under 3.0, while the unit has yet to punch it in on the ground.
Now this offense has to travel to Denver, in the altitude and on prime time, and face one of the best defenses in the league. The Broncos pass defense has allowed only two touchdowns, the fewest in the league, and the 57.8% completion percentage is fourth-lowest. The unit blitzes at the fourth-highest rate and has racked up 12 sacks, the third-most. The rush defense isn’t so bad either, as the EPA per carry is the fifth-best.
Nix has taken some heat, but many of the numbers for the pass offense are similar to last season. He’s missed some long passes by a whisker and if he hits those, the narrative and win/loss record would likely be different. Last season, the Broncos pass offense was 17th in EPA per dropback. This season, that number is 20th. The completion percentage is 64.2% this season and was 66.5% last season. The sack rate is 2.8% this season and was 3.7% last season.
The run game for the Broncos is averaging 5.2 yards per carry, the fourth-highest mark, but the 75 carries are the fourth-fewest. The Bengals rush defense is 15th in EPA per carry and allowed 4.4 yards per carry. The Broncos are heavy favorites in this one, so the run game could be the Yellow Brick Road for Sean Payton.
DraftKings Sportsbook has DEN -7.5 over CIN with the total at 44.5.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $600K Monday Night Showdown [$200K to 1st] (CIN @ DEN)
Captain’s Picks
J.K. Dobbins ($13,200 CP): Dobbins played 53% and 45% of the snaps in the first two weeks of the season. In Week 3, he received 67% of the snaps while RJ Harvey has been around 30% all season. Denver has lost the last two games, but it should be in control for this one. Dobbins has scored a touchdown in every game this season and put up around 15 FPTS in each contest. I think there’s a chance he gets close to 20 touches and 20 FPTS in this one.
UTIL Plays
Broncos DST ($5,200): Cincinnati is ranked 25th in pass blocking per Matt Bitonti of Footballguys. As written in the intro: “The Broncos pass defense has allowed only two touchdowns, the fewest in the league, and the 57.8% completion percentage is fourth-lowest. The unit blitzes at the fourth-highest rate and has racked up 12 sacks, the third-most.” In two games this season, the Broncos DST has racked up six and five sacks, putting up 14 and nine FPTS respectively. This correlates with Dobbins, who will likely only get 20 carries if the defense controls the game and provides good field position.
Bo Nix ($10,600): The Broncos are implied to scored 26 points. While Dobbins isn’t a bell cow, he should get most of the opportunites on the ground. I like Nix to play well in this one, slicing and dicing the Bengals pass defense while connecting on a long throw or two. Nix has exceeded 20 FPTS only once this season, but he hit that mark seven times last season with two over 30 FPTS.
Chase Brown ($9,600): I don’t think Brown has a good game, especially on the ground, but he’s going to get carries and do work in the passing game. He leads the team with 10 red zone opportunities and has 11 targets in the passing game. Brown has produced double-digit FPTS once this season, but his dual-threat ability has the best chance to lead the Bengals.
Fades
Ja‘Marr Chase ($11,000): The Broncos have one of the best pass defenses in the league with cornerback Patrick Surtain II likely shadowing Chase. And Browning will be hucking and chucking instead of Burrow. Chase went bonkers in Week 2, finishing with 39.5 FPTS. In the other two contests, he put up 4.6 and 9.9 FPTS, which is the area I expect him to finish in this one.
THE OUTCOME
Cincinnati got trounced last week, 48-10. I’m expecting a similar result as the Broncos will be desperate for a win after dropping their last two.
Final Score: Broncos 41, Bengals 13
