It is a loaded slate of college football across the Week 5 schedule. Kicking off at 7:00 p.m. ET as part of the action, NC State will host Virginia Tech. These two ACC opponents have gotten off to very different starts to the season and will battle for supremacy in this conference matchup.
These two programs have faced off 52 times in their existence. Virginia Tech has won 28 of these games while NC State has come out on top in 20 of the matchups, with a miraculous four ties taking place. The Hokies won five consecutive matchups from 2005 to 2020, but NC State has won the two last games between these two teams.
Looking at the odds, NC State enters as a 9.5-point favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook. Virginia Tech holds +285 odds of pulling off the outright upset, and the game total is set at 57.5 points.
This article will take a brief preview of both teams and a pick for the Week 5 matchup.
Virginia Tech at NC State prediction, preview
Virginia Tech Preview
It has been a nightmare start to the season for Virginia Tech. It enters this matchup with a 1-3 record with losses coming against South Carolina, Vanderbilt and Old Dominion. The Hokies will look to build off the momentum of their first victory last week, which came in a 38-6 rout over Wofford. The Hokies are 0-4 against the spread on the season and fired head coach Brent Pry following the upset loss to Old Dominion. Philip Montgomery now fills in as the interim head coach.
Kyron Drones stands in at the quarterback position. The third-year starter has completed 63.0% of his pass attempts for 928 yards, six touchdowns and three interceptions while adding 144 yards on the ground and four touchdowns with his legs. Marcellous Hawkins leads the team with 187 rushing yards at the running back spot, but he has yet to reach paydirt this season. Donavon Greene and Ayden Greene headline the wide receiver production. The two have combined for 410 yards and three touchdowns so far this year. No other pass catcher has more than 85 yards on the season.
Virginia Tech is averaging 23.8 points per game and producing 369.5 total yards of offense. Defensively, it is allowing an average of 29.8 points per game, which ranks 111th among D1 programs. It is giving up an average of 371.3 total yards of offense, including 213.8 through the air and 157.5 rushing yards on the ground. The Hokies have eight sacks and four turnovers forced through their opening four games.
NC State Preview
NC State has looked more encouraging out of the gates. It is off to a 3-1 start and 2-2 against the spread, with victories over East Carolina, Virginia and Wake Forest. The Wolfpack’s loss came against cross-state rival Duke, 45-33, where they entered as three-point underdogs. The Wolfpack outgained the Blue Devils 535-418, but they turned the ball over four times and blew a 20-7 lead they held late in the first half.
CJ Bailey stands in at quarterback and is posting a 71.9% completion percentage. He has thrown for 1,083 passing yards with seven touchdowns and four interceptions while adding 93 rushing yards and three scores with his legs. Terrell Anderson is the team’s leading receiver with 15 receptions for 273 yards and two touchdowns so far this season. Wesley Grimes, Noah Rogers, Justin Joly and Keenan Jackson have each also eclipsed 100 yards on the season and recorded a receiving touchdown, while Teddy Hoffmann also has over 100 yards on the year. Daylan Smothers is the team’s leading rusher with 80 carries for an ACC-best 503 yards and four touchdowns on the year.
NC State averages 31.5 points per game and 445.0 total yards per game. It is allowing 29.3 points per contest and 414.0 total yards per game. The Wolfpack has tallied five sacks and forced three turnovers so far this season.
Virginia Tech at NC State pick, best bet
The victory over Wofford was a sigh of relief, but Virginia Tech is trending quickly toward a disastrous season. My lean is toward NC State covering the -9.5 point spread and winning by double digits.
However, I am backing the over of 57.5 points and expecting points to be relatively easy to come by in this matchup. Virginia Tech is allowing roughly 11 yards per pass attempt against FBS opponents, and the wide array of pass catchers NC State possesses will cause some problems. It ranks 134th among the 136 qualifying FBS teams in this category overall. The Hokies also gave up 250+ rushing yards against both Vanderbilt and Old Dominion. There is no true matchup where Virginia Tech has an advantage on the defensive side of the ball, and NC State will be hungry to get back in the win column after last week’s loss.
On the other side, Kyron Drones is a better quarterback than he has played so far this season. He showed some promise last year and has mostly been bothered by his lack of time to make plays. The Hokies have allowed 10 sacks, which ranks 112th in the country, and 24 tackles for a loss. NC State has only tallied five sacks so far this season, with this not being a major source of strength for the team. If Drones has time, he will make more plays happen. This has just not been the case yet this year.
Virginia Tech ranks 37th in the FBS in third-down percentage offensively, while the Wolfpack defense is 127th in this category. Even more concerning, the Wolfpack is producing an 87.5% red-zone percentage offensively, while the Hokies have allowed a score on every red-zone appearance so far this season. Any way you slice it, it is tough to feel great about the outlook for either defense. Count on both these teams scoring at a regular rate and for this game to clear the 57.5-point total.
