It is a loaded slate of action across Week 5 of College Football. Kicking off at 12:45 p.m. ET, the Vanderbilt Commodores will host the Utah State Aggies. Vanderbilt has climbed to 18th in the AP Poll with a 4-0 record thus far, while Utah State is 3-1 on the season. This will be the first-ever meeting between these two football programs, with each seemingly moving in the right direction in the wider conversation.
Looking at the odds, Vanderbilt enters as a 22.5-point favorite and holds monstrous -2100 odds of winning outright on DraftKings Sportsbook. Utah State holds +1100 odds of pulling off the outright upset, and the game total is set at 58.5.
This article will take a brief preview of both teams and a pick for the Week 5 matchup.
Utah State vs. Vanderbilt prediction, preview
Utah State Preview
Utah State is off to a 3-1 start to the season with victories over McNeese State, Air Force and UTEP. Their lone loss came at the hands of Texas A&M, who have climbed to ninth in the AP Poll. Utah State suffered a 44-22 loss in this matchup, but has outscored opponents 125-53 on the year. In their most recent victory, Utah State out-gained McNeese State 627-to-239.
Bryson Barnes has impressed early on at the quarterback spot for Utah State. The Utah University transfer is posting a 65.4% completion percentage and leading the Mountain West Conference with 928 passing yards, eight touchdowns and just one interception, while adding 197 rushing yards and a conference-best six touchdowns with his legs. Miles Davis headlines the rushing attack with 310 rushing yards and a pair of touchdowns on the season, while Javen Jacobs has pitched in 137 yards on the ground and two scores. Braden Pegen and Brady Boyd have combined for 577 receiving yards and five touchdowns through the air to lead the wide receiver production. Davis has also added 109 yards and a pair of scores through the air at the running back position.
The Aggies are averaging 36.8 points per game, which ranks 42nd in the country. They have had a balanced attack, averaging 246.3 yards through the air and 181.3 on the ground per contest, while producing over two scores per game in both categories. Utah State is battling a few injuries at the skill positions, but has momentum on its side following the victory over McNeese State, as it now looks to scale up the level of competition.
Vanderbilt Preview
Vanderbilt climbed to 24th in the AP Poll last year, marking the first time it had cracked the Top 25 since 2013. It has successfully built on this, getting off to a 4-0 start to the season and the team currently ranks 18th in the country entering this week. This marks the program’s highest ranking since 2008. The Commodores have defeated Charleston Southern, Virginia Tech, South Carolina and Georgia State to this point by a combined margin of 190-51. Vanderbilt’s smallest margin of victory on the season is 24 points.
Diego Pavia is the straw that stirs the drink for this team’s success and has picked up right where he left off after last year’s breakout season. Pavia has completed an SEC-best 73.9% of his pass attempts for 890 yards, eight touchdowns and a pair of interceptions, while adding 215 rushing yards and a touchdown with his legs. Running back Sedrick Alexander is not far behind him with 210 rushing yards on the season and has reached pay dirt four times on the ground. Makhilyn Young adds 187 rushing yards and three rushing scores, while AJ Newberry has three rushing touchdowns of his own.
Tight end Eli Stowers leads the team in receiving with 16 receptions for 233 yards and a touchdown this year. Tre Richardson and Junior Sherril have each tallied 130+ receiving yards of their own with three combined touchdowns. Defensively, Vanderbilt has limited opponents to just 12.9 points per game, which is the 19th-best rate in the country. It is allowing just 70.0 rushing yards per game and 250.3 total yards of offense. The Commadores are led in tackles by CJ Heard with 21, and Miles Capers has a team-high 2.5 sacks. Vanderbilt has 11 total sacks and eight total turnovers forced.
Utah State vs. Vanderbilt pick, best bet
It is time Vanderbilt starts getting talked about as one of the best teams in college football, because that’s exactly what it is. The Commodores’ offense looks to be on another level right now and has not been held below 31 points yet this year. They have not won a game by fewer than 24 points, and I like this trend to continue in this Week 5 matchup.
Vanderbilt is 5-0 straight up and against the spread over its past five games. The victories over Virginia Tech and South Carolina have been especially notable, with Vanderbilt having control in each matchup from start to finish. Utah State has a strong track record of covering the spread, going 6-0-1 in its last seven games. However, it is 1-6 straight up in its last seven road games and 0-10 straight up in its last 10 matchups against the SEC.
Bryson Barnes has been impressive, and Utah State should feel great about how its season started. However, it is moving up a weight class in a way that it doesn’t seem quite ready for. The Aggies were able to hang in there for a 22-point loss to Texas A&M, but fell behind 30-6 in the second quarter, and it took a late fourth-quarter touchdown for the backdoor cover. Vanderbilt looks to have a bit more killer instinct and is still looking to catapult up the rankings to be talked about like a top college football team. Expect the Commodores to keep their foot on the gas and make use of this matchup to lay down another convincing victory.
