Major League Baseball has a season-ending extravaganza with all 15 games starting at the same time on Sunday, but before that dramatic mayhem, there are seven games under the lights Saturday night in a more traditional schedule. If you’re looking to get in on some home run props during the final night slate of the regular season, some specific matchups look very favorable. After examining the matchups, game environments, odds and current form of the players available, my favorite home run props for later this Saturday are from Corbin Carroll, Elly De La Cruz and Jose Altuve.
Just a quick reminder before we step to the plate and aim for the fences with these home run props — all home run props are long-shot bets. Even the top home run hitters are more likely not to hit a home run in any single game, so home run props are never “safe” picks. While there are some key indicators that can point us in the right direction, home run props are always volatile plays.
As a result, home run props can be a fun part of your betting strategy, but they shouldn’t be heavily relied on since they’re uncertain. What makes home run props exciting is that the longer odds yield big returns when they do hit. I typically play home run props individually and in round robins at a small unit size, boosting the ceiling even higher if multiple home run props go green on a given night.
Breaking down the numbers and matchups, here is why I like these three home run props on Wednesday night.
Best Home Run Props on DraftKings Sportsbook
Corbin Carroll to record 1+ home runs (+365)
Carroll and the Diamondbacks are finishing out the season at home against the Padres, but they’ve lost three straight and were eliminated from the playoffs with their loss on Friday. They were able to hang in the race a lot longer than expected after they traded away so many key pieces at the Trade Deadline.
Carroll has already set a career-high with 31 homers this season, even though he only has one homer in the last 18 games, which is why the odds for his home run props are a little longer on Saturday.
He has hit .272 in his 72 games at home with a .386 wOBA, and 23 of his 31 homers have come against righties like Michael King, who he’ll face in Arizona Saturday.
King has allowed 12 homers this year in his 14 starts. Lefties have six of those blasts with a .248 batting average and .325 wOBA. Seven of those homers have also come in King’s five road starts, in which he has a 5.33 ERA and .382 wOBA against him.
With the pressure of the playoff race off, Caroll could get the night off, but I think he’ll finish strong after doing so much to keep his team in the race over the last few months. He’ll be looking to put on a show for the home fans in the last two games of the season.
Elly De La Cruz to record 1+ home runs (+610)
De La Cruz had a little bit of a power outage in the middle of the season, but he has found some power recently to help his Reds stay right in the playoff race. They are tied with the Mets with two games left in the year.
While he only has 21 homers on the season, in his last seven games, De La Cruz has two homers while hitting .333 (8-for-24) with a .447 wOBA. He’s started to be a little more aggressive on the bases as well, showing he is closer to being fully healthy after dealing with lower-body injuries earlier this season.
His most recent homer was on Tuesday night against the Pirates.
The Brewers will try to play spoiler against the Reds and will give the start to lefty Robert Gasser before righty Jacob Misiorowski takes over as bulk reliever. One way to attack the lefty/righty tandem is to go with a switch-hitter like De La Cruz. Gasser has only pitched three innings this season in the majors after Tommy John surgery last year. He did give up a homer to Ivan Herrera in that outing, and De La Cruz will face him as a righty.
Once Misiorowski enters the game, De La Cruz will swing from the left side. Misiorowski has impressed in his rookie season, but he posted a 6.03 ERA and 3.75 FIP in his last eight games. Overall, he allowed eight homers in his 14 games, and lefties have hit six of those eight homers with a .318 wOBA.
De La Cruz brings great value in his home run props at over 6:1, so he can deliver a huge win if he comes up clutch for both the Reds and your home run props this Saturday.
Jose Altuve to record 1+ home runs (+377)
The Astros also need a clutch performance or two as they look to stay alive in the AL Wild Card chase. One of their most established clutch performers is infielder Jose Altuve, who has been one of their few healthy bats this season.
The 35-year-old righty’s average has dropped a little bit this year, but his power has increased. He has 26 homers in his 154 games with a .264 batting average. He has hit .300 over his last 12 games , including a pair of homers and a .372 wOBA.
Altuve has moved back to the top of the order and back to 2B after moving down in the order and to the outfield earlier this season. Back in his traditional spot and leading off, he’ll try to rekindle some of his clutch magic against Caden Dana and the Angels on Saturday night.
Dana is only 21 years old and could be a great piece for the Angels down the road, but he has looked a little overmatched in the majors this season. He has a 6.39 ERA and 6.14 FIP in his six games in the majors. Even in the minors, he went just 6-9 in 18 starts at Triple-A with a 5.93 ERA and 5.91 FIP, allowing 14 homers in 18 starts.
In the majors, he has served up six homers in just 25 1/3 innings, and righties like Altuve have hit four of those dingers with a .306 batting average and .415 wOBA against him. On the other side of the splits, lefties have also had success against Dana, and I picked Astros rookie Zach Cole as one of my top MLB DFS picks for the day. Cole has favorable odds at +502 for home run props, but since he’s a lefty and Altuve is a righty, I’m going with the more proven option to round out my Saturday home run props.
