Missouri is hosting UMass on Saturday night of Week 5. The game will take place at 7:30 p.m. ET in Columbia, Missouri.
The Tigers are 43.5-point home favorites in this game on DraftKings Sportsbook, with the total set at O/U 56.5 points. This is a preview, prediction and pick for this UMass vs. Missouri non-conference matchup.
Missouri vs. UMass prediction, preview
UMass Minutemen
The Minutemen have not had a good start to their season. They are 0-3, and those losses have come in ugly fashion. They lost 42-10 to Temple, then lost to FCS Bryant the following week. That was a demoralizing loss for the Minutemen, as it was one of the only winnable games on their schedule. Their last game came against Iowa, where they lost 47-7. This team could be out of fight after losing its winnable games, then getting crushed against a big FBS opponent. They now have to face an even tougher Power Four opponent, the Missouri Tigers. The Minutemen have used three different quarterbacks this season and have yet to find somebody who can properly run their offense. It could be another rough game for the Minutemen against a tough opponent.
Missouri Tigers
Missouri is off to a strong start to its season. They have faced multiple tests with games against Kansas and South Carolina in an SEC tilt. They answered both of those tests, winning both games by multiple scores. For being in the SEC, Missouri’s schedule is relatively manageable moving forward. They have a real shot at making it to the College Football Playoff for the first time ever if they can maintain this momentum. Penn State transfer Beau Pribula has played well at quarterback, and running back Ahmad Hardy is arguably the best back in the country. They have been one of the best teams in the nation so far and should comfortably keep it rolling against UMass.
Missouri vs. UMass pick, best bet
My best bet for this game is for Missouri to cover the first-half spread of 27.5 points. It is a massive spread for just the first half, but this is as big a talent differential as you will see in an FBS matchup. Of the 136 FBS teams, UMass ranks 133rd in net EPA/play. Meanwhile, Missouri ranks ninth in the country in net EPA/play. In short, Missouri should score at will against this UMass defense. Iowa put up 30 first-half points against UMass, and that offense has been inept at times this season against other opponents. Missouri should be able to score on every possession and even add a touchdown on defense or special teams. The Tigers might take their foot off the gas late, which is why the first-half spread is the right side in this one.
