Week 5 of the 2025 college football season is in full swing. On Saturday evening, No. 14 Iowa State (4-0) welcomes Arizona (3-0) to Jack Trice Stadium for an exciting Big 12 showdown at 7 p.m. EST. This battle between undefeated teams brings some serious stakes both in the conference itself and in the coming AP Poll as the Cyclones look to remain ranked while the Wildcats try and earn a spot for themselves, so this looks like a very entertaining spot for fans and bettors alike.
Here’s an Iowa State vs. Arizona prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for the Week 5 CFB action.
Iowa State vs. Arizona prediction, preview
Iowa State Cyclones
These Cyclones appear deserving of their ranking through the first few weeks with an undefeated record against three FBS foes (Kansas State, Iowa, Arkansas State) and one FCS opponent (South Dakota). To this point, Iowa State succeeds with a strong defense and just enough offense to scrape by in these matchups.
The program slots in 85th and 92nd with 21.3 points and 335 yards per game, largely on the backs of the run game. ISU averages 141 rushing yards per contest and runs the ball 55.67% of the time, depending on the duo of Carson Hansen (54-252-0) and Abu Sama III (38-182-2). However, Rocco Becht has played very solid football as well, completing 65% of his passes for 860 yards and seven touchdowns with just one interception. The Cyclones’ FBS wins came by three, three, and eight points, so they play teams close. However, the defense comes through as one of the NCAA’s best units with an average of just 16.7 points and 328 yards allowed per game, 21st and 37th-best.
Arizona Wildcats
On the opposite side, Arizona comes into this matchup unbeaten as well with two wins over FBS programs (Hawaii, Kansas State) as well as Weber State of the FCS. This offense looks far more exciting than ISU’s with 31.5 points and 378 yards per contest, 43rd and 63rd in the nation. In similar fashion to this opponent, the Wildcats run the ball 56.12% of the time while averaging 208.5 yards per game and 5.3 YDS/ATT, the 26th and 22nd-best marks of any team. Ismail Mahdi has over 300 scrimmage yards and a pair of touchdowns as one of the driving forces of the offense. Even some relatively inefficient play from Noah Fifita’s arm with a 59% completion rate hasn’t stopped him from throwing for 712 yards and six scores without a pick, including an impressive 13-237-2 receiving line from Javin Whatley.
The defense also posts some elite marks with 11.5 points and 241.5 yards allowed per game, 11th and fifth-best in the country. The 3.6 yards/play allowed by the Wildcats ranks third overall, and they look quite competent at shutting opponents down through the ground and air both.
Iowa State vs. Arizona pick, best bet
On DraftKings Sportsbook, Iowa State enters as 4.5-point favorites with -205 odds on the Moneyline. Arizona holds +170 odds to win outright with the game total set at 48.5.
This shapes up as one of the best matchups on the slate today. Iowa State obviously brings pedigree to this contest and are nationally ranked, but the offense must show up today to hang in there against Arizona. The Wildcats look far better on that side of the ball than the Cyclones do, but it’s a bit difficult to really grade Arizona thus far since they’ve played such an easy schedule outside of the win over Kansas State. Interestingly enough, both of today’s competitors did beat K-State and both games were decided by less than a touchdown. Not to use them as a measuring stick, but it’s still worth noting.
I’m a little bit hesitant to trust the Iowa State offense, but I’m also in wait-and-see mode where the Arizona defense is concerned. However, I think we’re in store for a close contest at the very least, and while I considered taking the Wildcats at plus value on the Moneyline, I’m targeting them to cover instead for a little wiggle room.
