Week 5 of the College Football season has the potential to be the best of the season with plenty of high-profile matchups. Starting in the noon EST window on Saturday, the Syracuse Orange will host the Duke Blue Devils. Syracuse enters with a 3-1 record on the season, while Duke has dropped to 2-2.
While both schools have historically been more known for their basketball teams, each football program is moving in the right direction. They have faced off five times on the gridiron in their program’s history, with Duke coming out victorious in four of these matchups. The last matchup occurred in 2020, and these ACC opponents will look to settle up this weekend.
Looking at the odds, Duke enters as a 4-point favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook. Syracuse holds +154 odds of pulling off the outright upset, and the game total is set at 59.5.
This article will take a brief preview of both teams and a pick for the Week 5 matchup.
Duke vs. Syracuse prediction, preview
Duke Preview
The Duke Blue Devils have been inconsistent to start the season. On the positive side, they have a pair of wins over Elon and, most recently, NC State. On the negative side, they lost 45-19 to Illinois and were beaten outright 34-27 by Tulane. They are 1-3 against the spread overall.
Offensively, Duke is averaging 34.0 points per game, which ranks 52nd in the country, and is producing 464.0 yards of offense. Darian Mensah has been mostly impressive, completing 99 of his 147 pass attempts for 1,305 passing yards, 11 touchdowns, and a pair of interceptions. Cooper Barkate leads the receiving production with 17 catches for 337 yards and a touchdown. Sean Brown and Shamir Hagans each also have 179+ receiving yards, and Hagans leads the team with four receiving touchdowns. Nate Sheppard, Jaquez Moore, and Anderson Castle each have 114+ rushing yards on the ground, with Castle leading the way with three touchdowns.
Defense is where the concerns lie for Duke. They have allowed 30+ points in three straight games to FBS opponents and are averaging 32.2 points allowed on the season. This ranks 117th out of the 136 qualifying D1 teams. The Blue Devils are giving up 413.8 total yards per game, which includes 153.3 rushing yards on the ground and 260.5 through the air. Simply put, they have not been good enough across the board. DaShawn Stone leads the unit with 31 total tackles, while Vincent Anthony Jr. leads the ACC with six tackles for a loss and five sacks. Duke has 10 sacks as a team and five turnovers forced.
Syracuse Preview
The Syracuse Orange enter this week with some momentum on their side after beating Clemson outright 34-21 last week. Syracuse entered the matchups as 16.5-point underdogs but held control in a wire-to-wire victory that was even more convincing than the score indicates. The Orange have also beaten Colgate and UConn, with their lone loss coming to Tennessee. The Volunteers have climbed to 15th in the AP Poll, and Syracuse cut the lead to 12 in the fourth quarter of this matchup before eventually falling 45-26 in this season-opening matchup.
The outlook for Syracuse did change pretty notably following the injury to Steve Angeli. When attempting to turn the corner on a scramble against Clemson, Angeli tore his Achilles tendon and will miss the remainder of the season. The Notre Dame transfer was off to a stellar start to the year with 1,317 passing yards, 11 total touchdowns, and a pair of interceptions through his first four games.
Rickie Collins will now step in at quarterback for the Orange. He went 3-for-8 as a passer for 38 yards and a touchdown in relief of Angeli last week. Collins spent his first two seasons of his collegiate career at LSU and attempted just seven total passes.
Yasin Willis headlines the rushing attack with 233 yards and four touchdowns on the season. Will Nixon is not far behind with 175 rushing yards, a pair of touchdowns, and 111 receiving yards through the air. Looking at the wide receiver production, Darrell Gill Jr., Dan Villari, Johtay Cook II, and Justus Ross-Simmons have each tallied over 200 yards through the air, with Ross-Simmons leading the conference with five touchdowns.
Syracuse is holding opponents to 27.5 points per game on average but 455.0 yards of offense. Demetres Samuel Jr. leads the team with 22 total tackles, while Braheem Long Jr. has a team-high two sacks and an interception.
Duke vs. Syracuse pick, best bet
If it had not been for the Angeli injury, I was ready to hype up Syracuse’s outlook eventually and in this game directly. But the quarterback change creates a level of uncertainty that makes this game difficult to project. Rickie Collins has attempted just 14 passes this year and 21 in his college career. Across his time with Syracuse, he has completed seven of his 14 attempts and added two touchdowns while adding six rushing attempts for 11 yards.
Duke has been more variable in their production this year but has the more proven quarterback, and it is to be determined if Collins can lead Syracuse to do some damage against this vulnerable Duke defense. My lean is toward the Blue Devils winning and covering the four-point spread, but I am avoiding a side.
59.5 is a high point total that I am backing the under with Syracuse set to lean on a run-first offensive approach following the quarterback change. Overs have been a cash cow for both of these teams, but the quarterback change for Syracuse has shifted the outlook. Expect Syracuse to try to slow the pace and lean on the run, and for their defense to do enough to limit Darian Mensah and Duke. Plenty of attention should be paid to what Collins looks like in a full game setting for expectations moving forward. But for now, I am expecting some hiccups for Syracuse and for Duke to be unable to make this a blowout. Expect the game score to fall short of the 59.5-point total.
