A Big 12 matchup takes center stage in the Week 5 college football late slate tonight. Deion Sanders’ Colorado Buffaloes (2-2) welcome the No. 25 BYU Cougars (3-0) to Folsom Field in Boulder for a highly-anticipated contest with conference stakes. While the Buffs are still working to navigate their new reality with less pro-caliber talent than last season, they face a tough test from this Cougars squad that hasn’t dropped a game yet.
Here’s a Colorado vs. BYU prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for the Week 5 CFB action.
Colorado vs. BYU prediction, preview
Colorado Buffaloes
Life isn’t as easy when you don’t have Travis Hunter and Shedeur Sanders lining up on offense, and the Buffaloes are learning that lesson all too well through their first four games. At 2-2, they’ve beaten Delaware and Wyoming but dropped contests to Georgia Tech and Houston, so the results are a bit of a mixed bag here in Boulder.
The offense remains far from the elite unit seen in the past with 27 points and 375 yards per game, both rankings in the 60s among all FBS programs. Colorado’s slightly more pass-happy than run heavy, but they utilize a pretty balanced attack overall. The program’s averages of 141.5 rushing yards and 233.5 passing yards aren’t anything to truly write home about, but they do undoubtedly have some talent. Kaidon Salter completes 66.7% of his passes and has 565 passing yards and four scores without an interception, and he also leads the team with 153 yards and three more scores on the ground. Three different wideouts each have at least 150 yards as well, with Sincere Brown’s 203 and two touchdowns both leading the group of pass catchers.
On defense, the Buffaloes rank inside the top-150 teams with 22.5 points allowed per game, but they fall all the way to 84th in yardage allowed at 409.5. They’re vulnerable up front while giving up nearly 200 rushing yards on average, but the secondary does post some respectable numbers overall.
BYU Cougars
The visiting Cougars are undefeated to this point with wins over Stanford and ECU as well as Portland State of the FCS.
The offense itself doesn’t truly turn heads, averaging 30.5 points and 375 yards per game. BYU runs the ball plenty with a 57.25% rush rate, though 164.5 rushing yards per contest aren’t exactly stunning, nor are the 4.4 YPC created. However, LJ Martin looks like a monster with the ball in his hands thanks to 342 rushing yards and a score on 8.6 YPC. The passing game has managed just 210.5 yards per game, but Bear Bachmeier throws the ball efficiently with a 66.7% completion rate, 518 yards and four touchdowns without a pick. Wideout Chase Roberts (11-185-1) and tight end Carsen Ryan (9-146-2) pace the team in receiving thus far and have double the yardage totals of the next-closest players.
The BYU defense is the side of the ball to watch for. The Cougars allow just eight… yes, eight points per game, the third-best mark in the nation. They also rank top-20 with 282.5 yards allowed on average, and the run defense looks fantastic with just 69 yards allowed per game. 10th-best. The team falls 51st in passing yards allowed at 213.5 per game, but that may be a product of game script and the defense ranks fourth in takeaways per game with 2.5 as well.
Colorado vs. BYU pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists BYU as 6.5-point favorites with -238 odds on the Moneyline. Colorado holds +195 odds to win outright with the game total set at 49.5.
Make no mistake in that the Buffaloes have enough talent to compete with the Cougars in this contest. Salter may pose a problem for this BYU defense thanks to his dual-threat ability and he did post his best performance of the campaign last week in the win over Wyoming. Plus, the pass-catching talent is deep on this roster. However, that’s where the encouraging signs end in my opinion as Colorado remains outmatched in the areas where their opponent excels.
Trench play has been a consistent issue for the Buffaloes over the last couple of seasons, and they’re getting gashed on the ground through their first four games. BYU loves to run the ball, and Martin looks like one of the most underrated halfbacks in all of college football. The Cougars come to town looking to assert their will on the ground and play at their own pace, and if they get out to an early lead, that leaves Colorado trying to play catch-up at their own place. Against a defense that forces turnovers at a high rate, BYU might be able to get in Salters’ head and force him into some mistakes if his team ends up needing to go pass-happy to keep things competitive. That can swing a game, but since the Cougars are so strong on the ground to begin with, I’m taking them to cover tonight by at least a touchdown.
