Week 5 of the College Football season has the potential to be the best of the season. But before the loaded Saturday slate gets rolling, there are a few appetizer matchups to close down the work week. Kicking off at 9:00 p.m. ET on Friday night, the Arizona State Sun Devils will host the TCU Horned Frogs.
TCU sits in 24th in the AP Poll and holds a 3-0 record on the season. Arizona State is 3-1 on the season, with its lone blemish coming against Mississippi State. These teams have faced off just twice in program history, both of which resulted in Arizona State victories. The last matchup took place in 1975, and quite a bit has changed in both programs since this point.
Looking at the odds for this season’s matchup, Arizona State enters as 3-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook. TCU holds +130 odds of pulling off the outright upset, and the game total is set at 54.5.
This article will take a brief preview of both teams and a pick for the Week 5 matchup.
TCU vs. ASU prediction, preview
TCU Preview
The Horned Frogs enter with a 3-0 record with victories over SMU, North Carolina, and Abilene Christian so far this season. They are averaging 41.7 points per game, which ranks 23rd in the country, while allowing 19.7 per game, or the 51st best rate. Josh Hoover headlines the attack for TCU. He is completing 68% of his pass attempts with 1,000 yards passing, 11 touchdowns, and just two interceptions. After throwing for 3,949 passing yards, 27 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions last year at TCU, Hoover looks to have taken another step forward and is leading all Division 1 FBS passers with 333.3 passing yards per game. It is important to note that Hoover picked up a knock late in the matchup with SMU that cast a bit of doubt on his availability for this week, but there have been some positive reports that he avoided serious injury and should be able to suit up. Keep an eye on this leading up to kick off.
Eric McAlister headlines the receiving production with 320 yards and three touchdowns on the season for TCU. Jordan Dwyer has a team-high 17 receptions for 257 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Joseph Manjack IV is the last wide receiver to have cracked over 100 yards thus far, with 153 receiving yards to this point, while Ed Small adds a pair of touchdowns as well. Jeremy Payne, Kevorian Barnes, and Trent Battle have each added over 100 yards on the ground at the running back spot.
Defensively, there are more legitimate concerns with the Horned Frogs. They are allowing 246 passing yards per game and rank 113th in EPA per pass play. The secondary has some issues and will be looking to slow down an Arizona State offense that ranks 87th in EPA per play and 89th in success rate. Jamel Johnson leads the team with 20 tackles and a pair of interceptions. They have eight sacks as a team, led by Ansel Din-Mbuh with 1.5.
ASU Preview
The Sun Devils are 3-1 on the season, with victories over Baylor, Texas State, and Northern Arizona, while their lone loss came by a 24-20 margin to Mississippi State. Arizona State dominated the time of possession 37:57 to 22:03 and made a late push after falling into a 17-0 hole. But they were only able to generate 82 yards of passing production, with Sam Leavitt throwing a pair of interceptions. In his second year at Arizona State, Leavitt is posting a 61% completion percentage and has thrown for just 748 yards, four touchdowns, and three interceptions.
Jordyn Tyson leads the Big 12 with 31 receptions for 357 yards and five touchdowns already this year. Chamon Metayer is the lone other member of the Sun Devils with triple-digit receiving yards, with 13 catches for 135 yards and a touchdown this season. They have leaned more on their rushing game collectively, with Arizona State producing 876 yards and seven scores on the ground already this season. Raleek Brown leads the way with 56 carries for 372 yards and a pair of scores. Leavitt adds 219 yards and four touchdowns of his own, while Kanye Udoh is also in the mix with 39 carries for 156 yards and a touchdown already this season on the ground.
On the defensive side of the ball, Arizona State has limited opponents to an average of 20.5 points per game. But they have given up at least 15 points in each game, including against Northern Arizona and Texas State. Jordan Cook leads the team with 33 tackles, as well as five tackles for a loss and a pair of sacks. Keyshaun Elliott adds 30 tackles, five tackles for a loss, and three sacks to his name. The Sun Devils have already tallied 33 tackles for a loss, 13 sacks, and six turnovers this year.
TCU vs. ASU pick, best bet
The biggest weakness of TCU lies in its secondary, but Arizona State lacks the personnel to effectively expose this. They rank 107th in pass rate and 103rd in passing success rate. Sam Leavitt has had some concerning moments already, and the Sun Devils’ offense is still run-first in its nature.
This is an area where TCU does excel. Per PFF’s defensive grades, the Horned Frogs rank 20th in rushing defense, 27th in tackling, and they allow just 3.2 yards per carry overall. Cam Skattebo’s absence is notable in Arizona State’s offense, and he will not be walking back through that door at any point. They are also completely content playing at a slow pace and milking the clock. The under has cashed in three consecutive games for Arizona State, and they do not crack the top 100 in college football in plays per minute.
Assuming Josh Hoover gets the full greenlight and is available, count on the TCU offense picking up right where they left off. They have put up video game-like numbers through their first three games and are capable of breaking this matchup open. The Horned Frogs are 6-1 against the spread in their last seven games, 4-1 in their last five road games, and 5-1 straight up when facing their past six Big 12 opponents.
If Arizona State is not able to control the pace of play and lean on its rushing attack, it will have some trouble in this matchup. Expect this to be how things go down and for TCU to push the offensive output to a level that Arizona State cannot match. This will be the Horned Frogs’ biggest challenge yet, but they have looked up to the necessary standard to this point, and expect them to utilize this as a statement game. Keep the points. I am backing TCU to get the outright victory on the road in this matchup and begin to truly join the conversation of the most impressive teams in college football.
