This is the opener of a three-game series in Toronto between the Blue Jays and visiting Tampa Bay Rays.
Adrian Houser is scheduled to pitch for Tampa Bay, while Shane Bieber is scheduled to pitch for Toronto.
Rays at Blue Jays prediction, preview
Adrian Houser has a 3.18 ERA through 119 innings this season. The FIP is a little higher at 3.77, but still a more-than-respectable number. The strikeout rate is only 17.7% and the swinging strike rate is 8.4%. The walk rate is 7.3% and he’s only allowed nine home runs. The hard hit rate is 47.1% but the barrel rate is only 6.1%.
Seven of the nine home runs have come off the bat of lefties. The K-BB% is 4.6% higher against righties and the FIP is 2.93 vs. 4.69 against lefties. He’s been better on the road, with a lower FIP and 5.9% higher K-BB%.
In 20 starts, Houser has allowed more than three earned runs four times and gone at least six innings 12 times. He has faced Toronto twice this season. The first meeting was in June on the road and he went 6.1 innings, walked three and struck out four while allowing two earned runs on seven hits. The second meeting was in July at home and Houser went seven innings, walked one and struck out two while allowing one earned run on seven hits.
Against right-handed pitching, the Blue Jays rank 29th in strikeout rate, 13th in ISO and sixth in wOBA.
Shane Bieber has only started six games and pitched 35.1 innings since returning from injury. And they have been very good innings. The ERA is 3.57 while the FIP is 3.93 as the BABIP is only .253 while the strand rate is 78.9%. The strikeout rate is 24.8% while the walk rate is an impressively low 3.6%. The bugaboo has been the long ball, as he’s served up six. The average exit velocity is 92.9 mph, barrel rate is 12.4% and the hard hit rate is 47.4%.
Bieber has had reverse splits, as five of the six home runs have come off the bat of righties and they are slashing .309/.338/.588. The K-BB% is 28.8% against lefties and the FIP is 1.96. He’s been slightly better on the road with a K-BB% that is 4.1% higher.
In six starts, Bieber has allowed more than three earned runs once and gone at least six innings four times. This will be his first time facing Tampa Bay this season.
Against right-handed pitching, the Rays have the 11th-highest strikeout rate in MLB, the 17th-best ISO, and rank 12th in wOBA.
As for the bullpens since Aug. 1, Tampa Bay ranks third in FIP while Toronto ranks 18th.
Rays at Blue Jays pick, best bet
Houser hasn’t been spectacular this season, but he’s been better than serviceable, especially in run prevention. The Rays bullpen has been one of the best. Bieber has been great, but those Statcast numbers are scary.
