It’s been a September to forget for the free-falling Mets. However, a series win this week has given New York some much-needed momentum. The club will look to keep things going on the road this weekend in Miami. Can the Marlins play spoiler against their NL East rivals? Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Friday’s meeting between the New York Mets and the Miami Marlins.
New York is favored (-137) over Miami, with the over/under set at 8.5 runs. Let’s break down which side has the edge on DraftKings Sportsbook entering tonight’s contest.
Mets vs. Marlins prediction, preview
There’s no question that the Mets, one of baseball’s most expensive teams, have played below their talent level. That’s despite getting MVP-level production out of newly signed slugger Juan Soto. In this dangerous lineup, he’s joined by fellow All-Stars Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor. In fact, eight different regulars for New York have recorded a wRC+ above 100. Since September 1st, the team is tied for seventh in baseball with 109 runs scored.
In spite of their offensive output, the Mets have logged a 9-13 record this month. That’s due almost entirely to lackluster pitching. During that time, the team has delivered a dismal 5.13 ERA. New York’s front office has called up a trio of talented rookies to save its underperforming starting rotation. That includes Brandon Sproat, expected to take the mound tonight. Through three outings, the right-hander has notched a 3.94 ERA and 1.19 WHIP.
New York’s rookie will take on an inconsistent Marlins lineup tonight. When playing at Loan Depot Park, the club is averaging the fifth-fewest runs per game in baseball (3.94). Outside of Kyle Stowers (149 wRC+) and rookie Jakob Marsee (142 wRC+), there aren’t many standout hitters in Miami. However, the Fish do own baseball’s 13th-highest OPS when facing right-handed pitching (.732).
Offensive production can never be counted on for the Marlins. A more likely way to win this game would be due to a great performance from Sandy Alcantara. The former Cy Young winner has suffered through a difficult 2025 campaign (5.48 ERA). However, the workhorse has found his groove in recent weeks. Since July 29th, the righty has posted a 3.53 ERA over ten appearances. That includes a seven-inning, one-run showing against the Mets at Citi Field on August 31st.
Mets vs. Marlins pick, best bet
Best Bet: Marlins ML (+113)
New York has had some trouble in this spot, going 5-5 vs. the Marlins this season. In addition, Alcantara is a far better pitcher at home (4.53 ERA) than on the road (6.92 ERA). Despite their series win over the Cubs, it’s still difficult to fully trust the Mets. Unfortunately for the Amazin’s, this feels like a classic trap game.
