The Philadelphia Phillies may have already clinched their first-round bye for the playoffs, but don’t expect them to take their foot off the gas pedal in the final series of the regular season. Momentum is everything in October, and the Phillies will be hungry to finish strong — especially considering that even some of the most dominant teams have fallen flat after a playoff layoff in recent years.
The job seems simple enough against the lowly Minnesota Twins, a team far removed from the playoff race and fresh off a trade deadline fire sale. But it’s easier said than done. The Twins roll into Citizen’s Bank Park with confidence, having won three of their last four and recently stopping the surging Cleveland Guardians’ ten-game winning streak.
First pitch in Philadelphia is scheduled for 6:45 pm ET. The Phillies are -158 moneyline favorites according to DraftKings Sportsbook, with the run total set at eight runs.
Twins at Phillies prediction, preview
On the hill for Philadelphia is 32-year-old right-hander Aaron Nola. This season has been quite a struggle for the former All-Star; he entered the season on the heels of four consecutive seasons with 32+ starts, only to miss three months of the year with a sprained right ankle and a fractured rib.
Nola hasn’t been the same since returning in August. In 16 starts this year (86.1 innings), he owns a 6.46 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, and 88 strikeouts. His staggering .332 BABIP and 4.64 xERA suggest some rough luck, but he’s also given up a ton of hard contact – posting a 43.8% hard-hit rate and 9.7% barrel rate.
Last time out, Nola allowed four earned runs over 5.1 innings on seven hits and two walks with four strikeouts against the Arizona Diamondbacks on Sept. 20. He has yet to face the Twins this year.
For Minnesota, ace Joe Ryan takes the bump for a career-high 30th start of the season. The 29-year-old righty enters with a 3.47 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, and 185 strikeouts over 166 innings of work. Ryan complements a minute 5.7% walk rate with a staggering 27.7% strikeout rate, attacking hitters with one of the best fastballs in the majors.
Ryan has stumbled quite a bit in September, though, liable for a bloated 9.00 ERA across three starts. In his last start, he got tagged for five runs (four earned) on six hits, two walks, and four home runs against the Cleveland Guardians on Sept. 20.
Twins at Phillies pick, best bet
Ryan has yet to face the Phillies this season — but when he does, he’ll be facing one of the most formidable offenses in the sport, one that just combined for eight home runs on Wednesday to set a new single-game franchise record. Since the All-Star break, Philadelphia has hit 108 home runs with an MLB-leading .811 OPS — a number that’s climbed to .852 in September.
Four Phillies carry an OPS over .820 this month, two of them being above .900. Harrison Bader has hit three homers this month while Bryce Harper has crushed five. Second baseman Bryson Stott has been a man possessed, hitting .324 with a .951 OPS and four homers in the final month of the season.
The offense is anchored by Kyle Schwarber, who has hit seven home runs this month to extend his National League lead. He crushed No. 55 and 56 on Wednesday, now just two shy of tying the franchise record that Ryan Howard set in 2006. Not to mention, Schwarber has a .928 OPS with 33 homers against righties.
To say the Twins’ offense pales in comparison would be an understatement. Byron Buxton remains one of the best offensive center fielders in the game, hitting .265 with an .879 OPS and 34 homers this season. He even hit a pair of home runs on Thursday, including his second straight leadoff shot. But his supporting cast, one that was gutted at the deadline and just lost promising rookie Luke Keaschall for the season, leaves much to be desired.
