Through three weeks, Sam Darnold leads the league with 905 yards passing. Kyler Murray has attempted the most passes (130). Both have played four games, though. Jared Goff has the highest completion percentage at 77.9%. Lamar Jackson has thrown the most touchdowns (nine) while Patrick Mahomes was leading all quarterbacks with 125 rushing yards before Murray surpassed him on Thursday night. Jake Browning has thrown the most interceptions (five) while Cam Ward has taken the most sacks (15). Geno Smith has thrown the most passes over 20 yards (15) while Sam Darnold, Daniel Jones and Russell Wilson lead the league with three passes over 40 yards. Caleb Williams and Aaron Rodgers have each thrown a pass 65 yards, tops in the NFL.
Here are my favorite QB/WR stacks for Week 4.
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5. Justin Herbert ($6,300) & Quentin Johnston ($5,600), Chargers at Giants
I do worry about the game script a bit, as the Chargers are -6 on the road and the Giants will be starting rookie quarterback Jaxson Dart. In addition, the Giants’ run defense has been one of the worst, allowing 5.2 yards per carry and the third-highest EPA per carry.
That said, the Chargers are 12th in pass rate and the offense has been Justin Herbert-centric from the get-go. The Giants’ defense is built to pressure the quarterback with defensive ends the focal point, but the Giants are 28th in pressure and hurry rates. The EPA per dropback is the eighth-highest, and what if Dart is the real deal and puts up points? Then Herbert will be flinging it all over and through the porous Giants secondary.
The targets have been distributed fairly evenly amongst the wide receivers with Keenan Allen leading the way with 28 targets, Johnston with 24 and Ladd McConkey with 21. Allen has six red-zone looks, Johnston sees five and McConkey only one. At some point, I think McConkey will start getting his numbers again as defenses adjust towards Johnston and Allen, but I’m not sure that happens this week. Give me the guy that is 6-foot-3, 208 pounds and was selected with the 21st overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. Johnston has put up at least 14 FPTS in every contest with a high of 24.9 FPTS.
4. Jared Goff ($6,400) & Amon-Ra St. Brown ($7,300), Lions vs. Browns
I do like Goff and St. Brown this week, especially since the Browns’ run defense is elite. That said, the Lions’ offensive line is one of the best and just mauled a hefty Baltimore Ravens defensive line. I can see a scenario in which the Lions try to be the bully on the block and ground-and-pound.
While the Browns’ pass defense stymied Joe Burrow and Jordan Love, Lamar Jackson lit them up for four touchdowns. The path of least resistance is through the air for Detroit, and I think that is the path they journey down more often than not. This game is at home on the fast turf too, so Goff gets a boost playing indoors.
St. Brown is the alpha of the pass catchers for the Lions, leading the team with 25 targets and eight red-zone looks. He will continue getting peppered with targets.
3. Patrick Mahomes ($6,000) & Xavier Worthy ($5,800), Chiefs vs. Ravens
The Chiefs’ running game is broken. Isiah Pacheco and Kareem Hunt are averaging 3.7 and 3.5 yards per carry, scoring only one touchdown. But the Chiefs are tied for second in EPA per carry! Young grasshopper, take a seat and meditate on this. Patrick Mahomes has rushed 18 times for 125 yards and two touchdowns. My handy-dandy abacus says that is 6.9 yards per carry. His production is definitely skewing the numbers for the Chiefs’ running game.
Speaking of skewed perceptions, the Ravens’ run defense has allowed the highest EPA per carry. They are the worst? Eh, maybe not. They faced Buffalo and Detroit, two very good teams with strong ground attacks. I think as the season wears on, the Ravens will end up being one of the better units at stopping the run. I don’t think Pacheco or Hunt will have much success on the ground in this one.
Therefore, Mahomes will have to don the cape once again. He has yet to throw for more than one touchdown in a game this season, but the rushing prowess has helped him put up two games with at least 23 FPTS. Last week, he finished with only 13.2 FPTS, but that was mainly because the Giants couldn’t muster much on offense. That should not be the case with a potent Ravens offense on the other side.
Worthy missed the last two games due to injury, but he’s back for this one. During the last three weeks of the 2024 regular season, Worthy garnered 11, 11 and nine targets. Then in the playoffs, Mahomes fed him with six, seven and eight targets. Worthy blazes with a 4.21 40-yard dash, and most importantly, has the trust of the coaching staff and Mahomes.
2. Geno Smith ($5,400) & Jakobi Meyers ($5,400), Raiders vs. Bears
This game has a healthy total of 47.5 and a spread of 1.5 points, so points are expected to be scored in a competitive environment. The Raiders have allowed the fifth-highest EPA per dropback while the Bears are 11th. Chicago has given up the most passing touchdowns (eight) while registering the fifth-lowest sack total (five), despite having the eighth-highest pressure rate. The 419 air yards are the 10th-most while the 350 yards after catch are the ninth-most.
Smith has been erratic. In the opener, he put up 21.5 FPTS while completing 70.6 percent of his passes. In Week 2, he threw three interceptions and finished with 6.2 FPTS. Last week, he was Garbage-Time Geno, finishing with three touchdowns and 26.1 FPTS. He will likely be hucking and chucking in this one, as there should be weaknesses to exploit in the secondary while the Bears offense should score points to keep the pressure on the Raiders offense.
Tre Tucker hauled in three touchdowns last week and out-targeted Meyers nine to four, but Meyers still leads the Raiders with 26 targets and garnered 10 and 12 in the first two contests. Tucker is playing 90% of the snaps and is $1,200 cheaper, but I think the ownership will be elevated due to recency bias and I think the pendulum swings back to Meyers in this one.
1. Caleb Williams ($5,800) & Rome Odunze ($5,800), Bears at Raiders
Williams has put up 24.2, 18 and 29.1 FPTS to start this season. Last week, he went 19-of-28 for 298 yards and four touchdowns. He has also rushed 16 times for 97 yards and a touchdown on the season.
Las Vegas is 24th in pressure rate and allowed the eighth-highest defensive aDOT (8.5). The 424 air yards are eighth-most. The 0.18 EPA per dropback is the fifth-highest in the NFL.
The weapons are there. The coach is highly regarded. The pedigree is high for Williams. This game environment should be a good one.
