The National League postseason race is coming down to the wire — and this three-game series between the Cincinnati Reds and Milwaukee Brewers at American Family Field is one of the most pivotal sets in finalizing the postseason picture.
Cincinnati’s playoff hopes were kept alive after right fielder Noelvi Marte made a game-saving home run robbery to preserve a 2-1 victory over the Pittsburgh Pirates on Thursday. The Reds (81-78) remain just one game behind the New York Mets for the final Wild Card spot — also owning the tiebreaker.
The steamrolling Brew Crew might have already clinched the NL Central, but don’t expect them to take it easy on their division rival. Milwaukee (96-63) still needs one more win in the next three games to secure the top seed in the NL bracket over the Philadelphia Phillies.
Milwaukee is an astonishing 51-27 at home, while Cincinnati is a decent 36-42 on the road.
First pitch is set for 8:10 p.m. ET, and the Brewers — who have taken seven of ten against the Reds this season — are -165 moneyline favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook. The total is set at eight runs.
Reds at Brewers, preview
Zack Littell is set to toe the slab for the Reds. The 29-year-old right-hander was acquired from Tampa Bay ahead of the trade deadline, and has produced a 3.86 ERA and 1.10 WHIP with 127 strikeouts over 31 starts and 182 innings. He gets hit pretty hard; his 17.2% strikeout rate and 20.6% whiff rate are exacerbated by a whopping 10% barrel rate. Still, Littell generates a ton of chases and makes hitters earn their bases — his 4.1% walk rate ranks in the top 98th percentile of the league.
Littell has gotten tagged throughout September, owning a 5.57 ERA and allowing four or more runs in two of his four starts. He had a solid rebound in his most recent outing, allowing two runs on just two solo shots across five innings against the Chicago Cubs on Sept. 20. He’s faced Milwaukee twice this season, giving up three earned runs across 12 innings.
On the other side, Milwaukee hands the ball to Quinn Priester. The 25-year-old was acquired from the Boston Red Sox ahead of this season, and while he doesn’t have awe-inspiring metrics (aside from an amazing 56.2% ground ball rate), he has quickly blossomed into Milwaukee’s second most reliable starter behind Cy Young candidate Freddy Peralta.
Priester has pitched to a 3.25 ERA and 1.21 WHIP with 128 strikeouts across 23 starts (28 appearances) in 152.1 innings. And get this, the Brewers have won 19 consecutive games when he takes the mound. That’s the second longest streak in the last 125 years, tying Carl Hubbell’s run with the New York Giants in 1936.
He owns a clean 3.00 ERA across three September starts. Priester enters Friday on the heels of a strong outing against the Los Angeles Angels, where he hurled 5.2 innings of two-run ball on three hits, one homer, two walks, and a whopping ten strikeouts. He’s faced Cincinnati twice this season, allowing three earned runs with nine strikeouts over 10.1 innings.
Reds at Brewers pick, best bet
Cincinnati’s offensive metrics leave plenty to be desired, but the team still has plenty of threats that can deliver at the right moment. Spencer Steer and Elly De La Cruz share the team lead with 21 home runs. Tyler Stephenson and Spencer Steer both carry an OPS over .900 in September — at .991 and .921, respectively. Meanwhile, Miguel Andujar — who was quietly acquired from the A’s at the deadline — is hitting .356 with a .958 OPS in 31 games with the Reds this season.
Milwaukee, on the other hand, has one of the most complete lineups in baseball. While they don’t hit home runs like the Yankees or the Dodgers, the Brewers execute small-ball to perfection. Milwaukee has the third-highest batting average in the league (.260) and paces the National League in OBP (.333).
Since joining the Brew Crew in June, first baseman Andrew Vaughn leads the team with a .316 average, .885 OPS, and 146 wRC+ — all with just nine home runs. That’s not to say they completely lack power, though. Former NL MVP Christian Yelich paces the club with 29 homers, while Jackson Chourio trails him with 20. Surrounded by a deep supporting cast, the Brewers are experts of stringing together hits and putting up runs in a hurry.
