Three games into the Chicago Bears’ Ben Johnson era, the promise might just be real. Though Chicago is just 1-2 so far, Johnson’s offense has amassed the league’s 12th-most yards. Caleb Williams underwhelmed as the first overall pick last season but is 13th in passing yards and sixth in passer rating so far, and he’s more than doubled his touchdown rate from his rookie season. The Bears can hardly be faulted for losing to the Detroit Lions in Week 2, and beating the Dallas Cowboys by 17 in Week 3 was impressive.
Johnson hasn’t gotten as much out of his running game as he did last season with Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery in Detroit, which isn’t all that surprising given that Gibbs and Montgomery are a lot more talented than D’Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai. This season, Swift has taken 42 carries for 149 yards and a score, while Monangai’s 13 carries have gone for just 42 yards and his three catches for 23. Swift is questionable for Chicago’s Week 4 contest against the Las Vegas Raiders with the hip injury that has limited him in practice all week.
It’s hard to gauge Monangai by his performance so far, given that seven of his eight carries in Week 2 came against the Lions came after the game was already out of reach and Williams had been pulled in favor of Tyson Bagent and two of his carries in Week 3 came after the Bears had already built a big lead. However, advanced stats are relatively friendly to him; Pro Football Focus has given him a 56.7 overall grade, and his 62.5 running grade is higher than Swift’s 62.5 and Raiders rookie phenom Ashton Jeanty’s 61.4. If pressed into a bigger role, Monangai should be able to replicate Swift’s production on the ground, but his utter inability to pass-block makes him a less reliable option if Williams opts to check it down. He also wasn’t a factor in the passing game at Rutgers.
Las Vegas could make it tough for Monangai to have a breakout game, not by stopping him but by so thoroughly failing to stop Williams that it makes running the ball unappealing. The Raiders have had a below-average run defense, allowing the 16th-most yards on the 11th-worst efficiency, but they’ve also allowed the 10th-most passing yards and the sixth-most net yards per attempt despite playing some fairly unimpressive quarterbacks in the New England Patriots’ Drake Maye and the Washington Commanders’ Marcus Mariota. In particular, Las Vegas has been susceptible to explosive plays, so Williams — who has the seventh-highest average intended air yards per passing attempt — should be incentivized to throw downfield.
