This is the second contest of a three-game series in New York between the Yankees and visiting Baltimore Orioles.
Tomoyuki Sugano is scheduled to pitch for Baltimore, while Cam Schlittler is scheduled to pitch for New York.
Orioles at Yankees prediction, preview
Sugano has a 4.54 ERA through 152.2 innings, and the FIP is higher at 5.21. The walk rate is low at 5.5%, but the strikeout rate is only 15.7% while allowing 30 home runs. The barrel rate is 11.6% while the swinging strike rate is only 7.9%.
Nineteen of the 30 home runs have come off the bat of lefties and at home. The advanced numbers are similar against righties and lefties with the home run discrepancy causing the difference in FIP. Same deal at home and on the road.
In 29 starts, Sugano has allowed more than three earned runs six times and gone at least six innings 12 times. He has faced New York three times this season. The first meeting was at home in April. Sugano went five innings, walked one and struck out eight without allowing an earned run on five hits. The second meeting was in the New York in June. Sugano lasted only 3.2 innings, walked three and struck out four while allowing three earned runs on six hits. The third meeting was a week ago at home with Sugano going only three innings, walking one and striking out three while allowing four earned runs on six hits.
Against right-handed pitching, the Yankees rank fifth in strikeout rate, first in ISO and first in wOBA.
Schlittler has started 13 games and pitched 66 innings this season. The fastball averages 97.8 mph and the ERA is 3.27. The FIP is slightly higher at 3.94 as the strand rate is 83.5%. Schlittler misses bats with an 11.2% swinging strike rate, 30.2% chase rate and 27% strikeout rate. The big bugaboo is the 10.8% walk rate, not uncommon for young pitchers. He’s allowed eight home runs.
The strikeout rate is higher against lefties, but so is the walk rate. The K-BB% is almost identical for righties and lefties. He’s been site neutral.
In 13 starts, Schlittler has allowed more than three earned runs twice and gone at least six innings four times. He has faced Baltimore once, which was in his last start on the road. Schlittler went 5.1 innings, walked one and struck out six while allowing one earned run on three hits.
Against right-handed pitching, the Orioles have the fourth-highest strikeout rate in MLB, the 11th-best ISO, and rank 19th in wOBA.
As for the bullpens since Aug. 1, Baltimore ranks 15th in FIP while New York ranks 14th.
Orioles at Yankees pick, best bet
I have no faith in Sugano and think the Yankees bats tee off on him. Schlittler misses bats and the Orioles strike out a ton against right-handed pitching.
