Seattle Seahawks vs. Arizona Cardinals
TNF (8:15pm ET)
NFL Week 4 gets underway with an NFC West matchup on TNF in Arizona. The Cardinals dropped a divisional road game on Sunday on a last second kick by the 49ers to drop to 2-1, while the Seahawks manhandled the Saints in Seattle to improve to 2-1. Both of these teams have wins over the Saints, and their only losses came in very close games to the 49ers.
These are two pretty similar teams in my opinion, so why are the Cardinals an underdog at home on a short week? Well, Seattle is coming off consecutive victories, including a blowout. That’s going to inflate the Seahawks’ value a little bit, while Arizona’s value takes a hit off its first loss of the season (although it did cover in San Francisco).
In my opinion, this game is simply about taking value in the market. The Cardinals were around a field goal favorite on the preseason line for this game, and I don’t think they’ve done anything to lower their value. So, unless you believe the Seahawks have improved their power rating by 4.5 points by blowing out arguably the worst team in the NFL, this line move is unjustified.
While the perception is that the Cardinals may be down due to James Conner’s injury and some struggles from Marvin Harrison Jr., I’ll buy low on Arizona. I don’t believe there’s much to go on here that tells us that the Cardinals should be priced any differently than they were in the preseason. Look for a nice bounce-back off a loss with the advantage of playing at home on a short week.
NFL Pick: Cardinals +1.5 (-110) – 1-unit
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